Human History is additive NOT subtractive!

When something big, new, and innovative comes along, most of the affected domain's “experts” and pundits typically decry the loss of the "good old ways" and lament how they are going to surely be eliminated by the new.  A common response, but they are WRONG!

However, when we look at the historical record, we rarely see the elimination of old practices and experiences. Instead, while the old is most often dramatically changed in terms of its role and its percentage of use, the new game in town usually augments the original purpose and value proposition of the old.

Let’s use radio as an example. When radio first came along, the experts and pundits predicted it would eliminate newspapers. When TV came along, they claimed TV was going to eliminate radio.  After all, who would want a talking box when we could have talking pictures?  But look at where we are in 2008!  In fact, no new media in history has ever eliminated the older media type that preceded it! 

Radio is not only a viable media, but one that is going through a resurgence and increase in effectiveness, reach and use.  The way we use radio, and the role it plays in our lives, HAS changed dramatically of course. For example, when was the last time you remember sitting down with your family to listen to an evening radio show. Yet, in the early days of radio, this happened all the time!

However, radio has not diminished at all in its value and use—it's just changed in how, when, and where we use it.  With the advent of satellite radio, HD radio, Web-based radio, podcasts, etc., we are in fact seeing radio go through its own exponential change and growth.  So the “death” of radio, as with most “old things” was greatly exaggerated, to say the least.

We've witnessed the same trend countless times with other technologies, such as predictions that airplanes were going to eliminate automobiles and trains, how online or eLearning was going to eliminate teachers and classrooms, how eBusiness was going to eliminate stores and shopping...and the list goes on. I'm sure you can name other (and better) examples of this same trend.  I'd like to hear about them.

Living in a World of Exponential Change

Not only has the new not eliminated the old, but it has caused exponential change and growth. This is another example of why I believe we are Living in a World of Exponential Change.  In my previous post "The Future is about Winning NOT Losing!", I used the example of the changes and future of film and video as an example and how recent phenomena, such as YouTube, Flickr and Pangea Day, bear witness to exponential change.

Not only is there exponential growth in the volume of video-based content, but even more importantly is the explosion of growth taking place on the production side—people creating and publishing video content in greater volume and diversity. This increase on the production side is being met by equal or even greater growth on the consumer side with the increased number and diversity of those who are watching, interacting, being inspired ,and moved to taking action by film and videos. Taken together we are truly talking about exponential growth! 

But growth, in and of itself, is not enough. I’m big on ensuring that we maintain a focus on the value proposition and underlying purpose of the things we do (see my postings and podcasts on Perfecting the Irrelevant and Flapping for more details on my views about how we confuse value proposition with activities for example).  How do each of these examples fulfill (or not!) the value propositions of improving the ways we as humans can communicate, express ourselves, see other points of view, and provide outlets for our creativity and innovation?  From where I sit, we now have more and more ways to deliver on these value propositions and we ARE delivering! What do you think?