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April 10, 2011

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Some claim the exponential change of technological progress may become linear or inflected or may begin to flatten into a limited-growth curve.

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After about seven folds, the paper is about the thickness of a notebook and you are soon physically unable to fold it any further, but mathematically, if you were able to do so, you'd find out that after about ten more folds, you would get something about the height of your house. Ten more folds after that, you'd get to the outer limits of the atmosphere. Sixty folds after that, you'd be at the diameter of the solar system. You can see how this kind of progression is something that we just aren't very good at estimating.

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