For many years now, I’ve more often than not taken great exception to those traits and characteristics which the “experts” and pundits say are the norm or the coming trends of our societies. They just don’t seem to match up with the reality I see all around me and what my sense of these trends are.
For example, I still keep reading about these grave concerns that we (especially the younger generations) are becoming isolated individuals who:
I don’t know where all these masses of people are who the experts say are out there and are becoming the norm. I see mostly the opposite among all of the many groups, ages, nations, and cultures that I’m privileged to spend time with around the world. I see people of all ages, classes, and cultures who are more social than ever—communicating, sharing, reflecting, observing, analyzing, and otherwise engaging more than I think we may have ever done.
I think the reason for this vast difference in observations is mostly because these interactions don’t look and feel like they used to. Behaviors have changed and they don’t fit the norms and definitions of the past. But make no mistake—from all indications and observations I can make, the fundamentals of socializing, interacting, communicating, writing, probing, being curious, and other such fundamental traits are not only alive and well, but they are at an all time high and are increasing exponentially.
You can therefore imagine my delight in finding more and more examples in the past few months of others who have been noticing this same counter-trend. Even better, some of this has now been formally studied and evaluated, so it is no longer just a matter of opinion and a collection of anecdotal observations.
One of the more recent examples is the massive study called “Stanford Study of Writing” that was recently completed by Andrea Lunsford, professor of writing and rhetoric at Stanford University. Clive Thompson did a good synopsis of this study in a the Sept. 2009 edition of Wired magazine called “Clive Thompson on the New Literacy”. Lunsford studied college students from 2001 to 2006 and used over 14,000 samples of their diverse writings including formal assignments, emails, blogs, and chat sessions. Tellingly, 83% of their writing took place outside of their academic assignments. One of her conclusions particularly rang true to me when she remarked, “I think we’re in the midst of a literacy revolution the likes of which we haven’t seen since Greek civilization.”
Perhaps most importantly, this study showed that it is not just volume but effectiveness of writing that has increased so dramatically. I picked up a new word (always a great find for me) in Clive’s article that Lunsford uses to quantify a critical competency that her study showed had dramatically increased. Kairos is the ability of a writer to “assess their audience and adapt their tone and technique to best get their point across.”
New World Encyclopedia notes that in Panathenaicus, Isocrates wrote “educated people are those who manage well the circumstances which they encounter day by day, and who possess a judgment which is accurate in meeting occasions as they arise and rarely misses the expedient course of action.” Sounds like a pretty important skill to me!
According to Clive (something of particular note to those in education), Lunsford observed in her study that “students were almost always less enthusiastic about their in-class writing because it had no audience but the professor: It didn't serve any purpose other than to get them a grade.”
Here is a short spur-of-the-moment list of some of my recent observations and learning regarding writing— both my own and that of those around me. I would be most interested to hear from you about how well these match or conflict with what you are seeing when it comes to writing and communication skills now and what you think will happen to them in the future.
These accounts were subsequently picked up by news services around the world, many of which were able to call me on my sailboat via my satellite phone and do a live interview as I was literally in the mist of the tumultuous effects of the tsunami in real time. This is not only something that was technically impossible a few years ago, but serves as a dramatic example of just how much we are becoming the “prosumer” society which Alvin and Heidi Toffler so presciently described in their book “The Third Wave” wherein we are no longer either a producer or a consumer, but are both at the same time.
I’m sure you can come up with many more examples of other trends and directions, skills, and consequences of the changes happening with our writing and communications. I therefore hope and encourage you to add yet another example of this trend by either posting some of your observations on your own blogs, tweets or Facebook pages, or directly here. I hope that my own writing here is reflecting the positive traits of this exponentially accelerating trend.
Referring back to the Wired article I mention at the start of this posting, I thought Clive made a great point in closing when he noted: “knowing who you’re writing for and why you’re writing might be the most crucial factor of all.” Write on Clive!
Wayne
I am as remiss as I am delighted to be able to finally get around to sharing some of the fascinating work taking place on one of the world’s most remote locations, Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island, and to introduce you to some of the even more fascinating people doing this work.
Most of us are probably familiar with the mysterious stone carvings on Easter Island called Moai (pronounced mo´-eye) and they are indeed impressive. Some of you may recall the book “Collapse” by Jeffrey Diamond and recall how he used Rapa Nui as a blueprint or roadmap to societal implosion, all of which seems all too relevant and most valuable in these current times.
However, even more impressive is the story of the people and the history that lies behind the blocks of stone. It is in part a story of great sadness and devastation as the residents desecrated the island (and nearly themselves) by clearing literally every tree in order to create these statues. Yet this is also a story with great hope and inspiration as these challenges are being resolved with remarkable human ingenuity and determination augmented by some of today’s hardware and software. I continue to be more and more fascinated by the whole new solutions and results that emerge when we mix or “mashup” the old with the new, and these efforts on Easter Island are yet another great example.
Jeff O’Brien has recently done a great job of telling this story in his Jan. 13, 2009 Fortune magazine article “Saving Easter Island” and in this accompanying video interview. I am very confident that you will find it a good use of your time to take a few minutes to read the article and watch the video.
You will be introduced to Sonia Haoa, a 55-year-old native of the island and the lightening rod for efforts to capture the history of the island and save it from further destruction. The article and video will also introduce you to my friend and colleague Pete Kelsey who has been instrumental in helping Sonia and others on the island take advantage of some of the benefits of modern technology and techniques to create a much more in-depth and accurate capture of the geography and history of the island. They have used this technology to see whole new connections and ways forward for the future. Pete works at Autodesk Inc. and is the resident expert in the software, such as AutoCAD Civil 3D, and the whole area of civil engineering
Together Pete, Sonia, and a team of other people from local and from other technology companies are in the process of digitizing the whole island to create models so accurate you can now see the original chisel marks from when the Moai were carved out of the volcanic rock blocks. It is from lessons like the ones coming out of this work on Easter Island that Autodesk and all of us can learn more about how to combine the past with the present to make a much better future.
Pete originally went to Easter Island out of pure curiosity and to check off one of the items on his “Bucket List” (name of a highly recommended movie BTW) of things to do and places to see before he “kicked the bucket”. However his curiosity and talent soon led him to connect up with Sonia. And the rest makes for a great story that is still unfolding, but you can get started on with the article and video.
* You can also track the whole project on the Easter Island project diary blog.
Best of all, I will soon have the great privilege of meeting some of these people in person and seeing their work first hand, since I am about to set sail for this remarkable remote island this month. I’m currently in Costa Rica finishing preparations on my 50’ sailboat “Learnativity” and expect to set off later this week for Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands from where I’ll turn south and make the open ocean crossing to Easter Island. If you get out your atlas or fire up Google Earth, you’ll get a better sense of just how remote Easter Island is and develop a bit more appreciation for the importance and the challenge of the efforts being made there to build a whole new future for the island and for the rest of us.
I strongly encourage you to take a few minutes to read this article and watch the video. I think you’ll soon become as fascinated with this as I am and a bit more aware of the wonderful diversity and vitality that is on this planet we share. There are lessons for all of us and on many levels including geographical, historical, sociological, and personal to be gleaned from the history of Easter Island, as well as its present and prospective future.
I look forward to reporting back to you when I’m on Easter Island with more photos and stories of some of my personal experiences, interactions, and perspectives. Until then, enjoy some virtual traveling and some learning from the comfort of your chair, and please join me in a salute to the ingenuity of people like Sonia, the energy and spirit of people like Pete, and the great mashups of old and new that can help make this a better place for all of us.
Since I received a lot of responses and follow up (thanks!) to the posting Photosynth: Mashups of Our Collective Intelligence via Photos, I thought you would be quite interested to know the most recent use of Microsoft Photosynth, which creates 3D spaces from a mass of 2D photos.
CNN is using Photosynth to create a 3D space they are calling “The Moment”, when Barack Obama raised his hand to officially accept the position of President of the USA. To do so, CNN is asking everyone to send in at least one photo they took of this defining moment in history, and CNN will then use these to create a 3D environment with Microsoft Photosynth.
CNN recently experienced a very different kind of “CNN moment” when their systems were unable to cope with the spike in demand for their live streaming of the event. So here’s hoping that this new “moment” that they are proposing is a much better experience!
It's worth checking out. Since I wasn’t in the country or near any TV coverage (other than in airports), I missed seeing the inauguration, so I'll be interested to see “the moment” myself. And I’ll be curious to learn what your experience with this new capability is like. Looking forward to reading your responses.
I've been a big fan of Jane McGonigal ever since I had the chance to talk with her at the Learning 2007 conference where we were both speakers. One of the many reasons I so like her work is her focus on what is called “alternate reality gaming” or ARG (gotta have an acronym or it ain’t real right?). While Jane is a very fun person (who else would carry the title of "Head PuppetMaster"?), trust me when I say that her work on games and their consequent results has been very “serious” indeed. Harvard Business Review called her theory of "alternate reality business" one of the "Top 20 Breakthrough Ideas of 2008". Check out Jane's company AvantGame and her blog for more information and I think you too will soon be a big fan.
I’ve been promoting augmented reality over virtual reality for a long time, and Jane’s unique approach of adding gaming to the equation is brilliant. I believe that Jane and her games are the best examples that I know of for showing off some of the true power of applying game theory. I especially appreciate the truly unique approach and out-of-the-box thinking she has brought to gaming. Jane’s games are also great examples of a common theme here on OCOT—the power and beauty of simplicity. Unlike most game examples, which typically involve a lot of hardware and software technology and are highly dependent upon the game developers and platforms, Jane's games are an extremely “low tech” model that puts the game players in charge. It all starts with and is based upon a simple opening statement or premise and is then left up to the players to provide all the excitement and direction online, usually with simple tools such as e-mails, blogs, and IM. You can see this for yourself by checking out some of her past successes such as World Without Oil, Cruel 2 B Kind, and I Love Bees.
All this is just an introduction though to a new joint venture that I'm intrigued by and which Jane is leading with the Institute for the Future called “Superstruct”. They describe it as “the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game. It’s not just about envisioning the future—it’s about inventing the future.” As with all her alternate reality games, this one starts with a scenario. In the case of Superstruct, it begins with the following:
"Humans have 23 years to go: Global Extinction Awareness System starts the countdown for Homo sapiens. PALO ALTO, CA — Based on the results of a year-long supercomputer simulation, the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) has reset the "survival horizon" for Homo sapiens—the human race—from "indefinite" to 23 years."
You can read the rest of the details in the link above and this Superstruct FAQ. Highly recommend that you take a few minutes to check out the link to Superstruct to learn more. Although the game doesn’t officially start until September 2008, they have already started a precursor in the form of comments to the announcement and an initial premise of:
"It’s the summer of 2019. Imagine you’re already there, and tell us a little bit about your future self. Where are you having dinner tonight?"
For more on Superstruct and other AR games check out the ARGNet for more alternative reality games. While it is obviously still early in the process, I was struck by the degree to which the initial comments seem to see and predict a very negative future, and it's all the more reason for us to all take a role in changing this by envisioning and designing one that is positive. If you believe as I do that WE are ultimately in control of the future, then why would we design and aim for anything less? PLEASE be sure to check out the comments and add some of your own!
What I'm most passionate about, and my reason for alerting you to this new glimpse into the future, is the whole idea of not predicting the future, but "inventing it" as Jane has also been known to say. This of course parallels one of my favorite Alan Kay' quotes:
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
This hands on, get involved, take responsibility and action approach has always spoken to me loudly, and so I’m struck by the increasing number and diversity of ways that this is actually happening and how we collectively can and are creating the future. It sure beats the more typically fatalistic attitudes I seem to run into so often that "they" are causing everything or that technology is somehow in control of our future. I'm desperately hoping and sincerely believe that as these recent examples show, we are seeing the turnaround of the "victim mentality" that seems to have become so prevalent and we are going to seize both the opportunity and the responsibility to make the future one that we want to live in and be a part of.
Game on!
I recently read the article "AT&T: Internet to hit full capacity by 2010", which is pretty much summarized by the title and the opening line:
"U.S. telecommunications giant AT&T has claimed that, without investment, the Internet's current network architecture will reach the limits of its capacity by 2010."
You can read more in the article, although they digress into some net neutrality issues. However, this latest prediction reminds me of similar predictions throughout history that "the end is near", and I'd like to explore them further here.
I can recall back in about the late 80's when experts were making similar predictions and warnings that we had reached the upper limit of how fast data could be transferred through phone lines via modems—9600 baud! These same experts claimed that we'd reached the limits of physics and it was just a "fact" that we needed to accept.
As we can now see (with the benefit of hindsight, of course) that entirely new materials and techniques, such as optical fibre, compression algorithms and other breakthroughs, were developed to get around some of the limits that existed for wire-based data transfer. Wikipedia has a good history of modems, bandwidth, and the inventions along the way.
It's interesting to note that these types of warnings and stories are usually accompanied by quotes from the experts and other "facts", which prove that they are "true" and inevitable. It reminds me of this quote from a great scene in the movie Men in Black:
"Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
BTW, you can find this quote and just about any other kind of movie-related trivia from the handy Internet Movie Database.
Going much further back, dire warnings in the late 1800's said that we needed to seriously curtail the expanding use of horses, cows, and beasts of burden or else the planet would soon be covered in several feet of manure! The experts had "done the math" and this was an inevitable and irrefutable prediction. But ooops! We didn't allow for the invention of the internal combustion engine, electrical power, and other energy sources that significantly reduced our reliance on animal-based power. Of course, we also didn't anticipate the whole new series of problems and challenges of global warming that many might argue make the manure problem look like a good one!
I sometimes have the sense that some of the more dire predictions about global warming and other imminent disasters are similarly exaggerated and misdirected. Please do NOT misconstrue my comments here to mean that we have nothing to worry about or to work on. I want to champion quite the opposite reaction! To be sure, all of us have much to be concerned about. We need to be more diligent and work harder than ever to ensure the sustainability of ourselves and our environment so that we can ensure an ever brighter future for us all.
History has shown that we are capable of doing some VERY stupid things and can exhibit great ignorance and lack of foresight. However, as illustrated by my prior examples, history also shows that we need to take into account our even greater human capacity for invention, discovery, creativity, innovation, and design.
I'm sure that many of you may have similar Chicken Little "the sky is falling" * stories, and I'd be most appreciative if you'd post these to your blogs or send comments here to help all of us learn from these historical examples.
I'm was in Mexico recently and I'm told that the story of Chicken Little (and the saying "the sky is falling") are well known there and translates to El Cielo Se Esta Cayendo. For those not familiar with this reference the previous link will give you the background.
In the end, I have huge faith in our collective powers for invention, creativity, innovation and designing solutions. What we need to watch out for is the flip side of this where we become smug, arrogant, or cynical based on what we "know for sure" today. I hope that examples such as this latest prediction about the limits of Internet capacity will only serve to help us balance these forces and inspire and motivate us all to work towards new ways to improve our lives and those of all others.
Rather than imagine what we'll know for sure tomorrow, imagine if ................ Not only is the sky NOT falling, it is the limit of what is possible.
While I can neither take credit for nor claim any influence on Google's recent announcement, I'm pleased to say that some of the things I wished for last year in my posting "New Perspectives; Looking Down and Under" are about to come true! In that posting, I wished that we would soon have similar capabilities as those provided by Google Earth and Google Sky, but these would vary in that they would look down and under to the earth's oceans and seas. Well, the title of this posting pretty much says it all, and you can read about it in the WebWare article "Google Diving into 3D mapping of Oceans".
Google Ocean (the name is tentative), shares similar goals, as well as the potential of increased collaboration, mass contribution, and "networking" that Google Earth and Google Sky present. See my previous posts "New Perspectives: Looking Up" and "New Perspectives: The Third Wave" for more details and context about how powerful this can be. These views were summed up in the article:
"In addition to the 'wow factor" Google Ocean will no doubt have for amateur oceanographers, marine enthusiasts, and anyone fascinated by the movie 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, the project has the potential to promote more collaboration and advance research."
They also reflect my previous comments about how little we know about the 70% of our planet that is covered by the seas:
"'We hope that one of the outcomes of Google Ocean will be an understanding of how much remains to be explored,' said Miller of Scripps. 'We know far more about the surface of Mars from a few weeks of radar surveying in orbit than we know of the bottom of the ocean after two centuries.'"
Unfortunately, Google Oceans is not yet released, and Google is not saying much officially yet. I'll be watching for the first chance to start using this new capability, and let you know as soon as it happens. Since I live full time at sea now, this announcement is particularly relevant and practical for me. I already use Google Earth extensively for surface information, such as exploring a port or anchorage I'm about to put into. In addition to my charts of the area, the photos and the ability to fly over the area before I get there have made a huge difference in terms of safety and in my confidence for sailing to new places, especially at night or in poor weather with low visibility. But I suspect that many of you would have similar fascination with the earth's oceans and be just as anxious to learn more. Perhaps some of you will have research or other information to contribute, and we can add yet another way in which mass contribution and the power of networking helps us all get better at getting better.
This announcement about Google Oceans is yet another great example of the power of wishes and how they often do come true (you might want to read about another wish come true in my recent posting "The Future is about Winning!", which highlighted the wish that turned into Pangea Day).
Although we may want to be careful what we wish for, I could not be more serious or sincere about my wish that you'll keep believing in the power of wishing and do some of your own! I'll continue to share some of mine. I'm also interested in knowing what are some of YOUR wishes for positive change.
Today (March 19, 2008), this world lost a great mind and great person with the passing of Arthur C. Clarke. I suspect another world gained an equal or greater amount.
While I am not personally a big science fiction reader or watcher, I have long been fascinated by and most respectful of the thinking and perspectives of Arthur C. Clarke. Although I'm sure there will be a LOT of articles and other posts on this event, his passing gives me a chance to connect you to a phenomenal resource—fellow Canadian Stephen Downes. He is one of the most active researchers and readers I know and a prolific and talented writer—skills I admire greatly. While our perspectives are very different, Stephen and I are usually in "heated agreement" on most things and share a common sense about the priorities in life and learning. I highly recommend that you check out some of Stephen's many sites and resources, such as his OLDaily "Online Learning Daily" and his "Half an Hour". blog.
With a nod to Stephen for the visual and the Clarke quote he chose, (copied here), here is one of the many reasons why I have such respect for and resonance with Arthur C. Clarke.
And you will also understand my sentiments when you read this Wired article about him, where they remember that when asked by Wired in 1993 if he had put any thought into what he would want on his epitaph, Clarke said he had:
"Oh, yes," he said. "I've often quoted it: 'He never grew up; but he never stopped growing.'"
May we all strive to find this often tricky balance between staying young at heart and in mind, yet constantly growing and "getting better at getting better"** as Doug Engelbart so concisely put it. Sure helps to guide me through my journey in life.
Thanks Arthur! You will be sorely missed but never forgotten.
** Marcia Conner and Erik Duval, two of my other favorite people, also like and often use this Engelbart notion of getting better at getting better.
We are rapidly evolving towards a networked world—NOT "network" in the technical sense, but the concept of networks wherein literally everything and everyone is a "node" and is connected to every other node. As this degree of connectivity becomes more and more pervasive, a whole new set of characteristics begin to emerge and our world as we've known it changes dramatically.
One of these characteristics or traits of a networked world is what has been referred to as the network effect wherein the addition of more "nodes" multiplies the value to all the other nodes and to the network overall. Historical examples include technology such as the telephone, cell phones, FAX machines, e-mail, IM, etc., where we can easily see the power of the network effect as each new "member" or node of these networks multiples value of the overall network of all the other nodes. For example, the value of the first cell phone, FAX or e-mail was essentially zero, and the addition of each unit multiplied the value for everyone else in the "network". As a result, as soon as you had one of these items you immediately started persuading everyone else to get one because otherwise the value to you was diminished. An early example of the so called "viral marketing" effect we are seeing much more of now.
The term "network effect" was first coined by Robert Metcalf, a brilliant mind and the founder of Ethernet, among many other things. But what is becoming clearer is that the network effect is not limited to technical networks and is, in fact, extremely pervasive. The Encyclopedia of Life is one such application of this network effect.
The Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) is best summarized by the opening text on the site:
"Comprehensive, collaborative, ever-growing, and personalized, the Encyclopedia of Life is an ecosystem of web sites that makes all key information about life on Earth accessible to anyone, anywhere in the world. Our goal is to create a constantly evolving encyclopedia that lives on the Internet, with contributions from scientists and amateurs alike. To transform the science of biology, and inspire a new generation of scientists, by aggregating all known data about every living species. And ultimately, to increase our collective understanding of life on Earth, and safeguard the richest possible spectrum of biodiversity.
And here is a good review of EOL by National Geographic News as well as the ubiquitous Wikipedia reference.
Of course pictures and video are even better so be sure to check out their video clip that will quickly show you how EOL works and and this collection of demonstration pages that show how rich and extendable the data will is.
If you have a bit more time (about 22 minutes) I highly recommend that you watch the following video:
As E.O. Wilson accepts his 2007 TED Prize, he makes a plea on behalf of his constituents, the insects and small creatures, to learn more about our biosphere. We know so little about nature, he says, that we're still discovering tiny organisms indispensable to life; yet we're still steadily destroying nature. Wilson identifies five grave threats to biodiversity (a term he coined), using the acronym HIPPO, and makes his TED wish: that we will work together on the Encyclopedia of Life, a web-based compendium of data from scientists and amateurs on every aspect of the biosphere.
But EOL represents even more than the two themes I've touched on here and in my last post. More about this next time.
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