Off Course-On Target

The Future is about Winning!

Recently, I participated in a meeting with colleagues at Autodesk Inc. on the Future of Events (FOE), where we tackled how to make events, such as conferences, Autodesk University, user groups such as AUGI, communities, etc., more green and sustainable.

Autodesk Commitment to the Environment

While this post is not directly about the topic of sustainability and the environment, I’m delighted with the seriousness and depth with which we are treating these issues at Autodesk. Corporately, we have a strong Environmental Commitment and Environmental Policy. But more important to me is how this initiative is being distributed throughout the entire company. We are being encouraged to make it our responsibility both as employees and citizens.

This recent FOE meeting focused on finding ways to realize these commitments, policies, and goals through Autodesk events. The meeting was but one example of how we are committed to improving the environmental performance of both our own business operations and educating ourselves and partners to do the same.  In addition, we are committed to helping our customers improve the environmental performance of their designs through the software and technology we develop. I quite like that this has a win-win quality to it. These priorities and commitments are equally as important to the long-term success of making the world a better and healthier place as they are to our success as a company.

Winning vs. Losing

One thing that prompted me to write this posting were comments in the FOE meeting about how much some of us feel we have lost when it comes to event-based experiences. For example, people reminisced about how great going to a movie theater used to be—with all the smells, sounds and other very visceral characteristics. One participant added how it was also a family outing, and even though one memory included getting gum stuck in her hair, it was still remembered as a totally wonderful experience.

Many in the room lamented what they saw as the decline and loss of the "good old" movie-going experience. They felt that today more people seem to sit alone in front of their TV or computer screens to watch movies, films and video. I think this view is just the glass half full vs glass half empty way of looking at things.  I don't doubt that there are statistics to support that more  individual viewing is going on and that movie theatre attendance is down.  But let's be sure to look at the whole picture here (sorry, I couldn't resist). 

Best I can tell, the total picture shows that we have more people watching (and making) more movies, pictures, and films than ever before in history.  Being a glass-half-full type of person, I do not view the change of movie-watching habits as a loss (we can still have large group movie-going experiences for the most part), but as a great opportunity to have more choices and results from experiences with film, movies, and video (to pick but a few examples). What's more, the results of this increase in movie and video production and consumption is quite profound and powerful as a timely example demonstrated very well. 

Being a big believer in synchronicity, I was not surprised that on the same day as the FOE meeting, the New York Times printed “Bringing the World Together via Film” , an article about Pangea Day,  an event which "endeavors to bring the world together and promote understanding and tolerance through film." According to the article, the power of film is substantially increased when we extend this from the domain of experts only and include “the rest of us” who might be so inclined to create some original film and video. Far from losing the “good old” movie theatre experience,  we are gaining more experiences and more options to augment and increase the effect of film and video.  Sounds more like winning than losing to me, and to badly paraphrase the Bill Withers song "Use Me": If it feels this good to lose, then keep on losing me until you lose me up!

Learning from Past Patterns?

Why is it that whenever something new and innovative comes along, people perceive that it means the elimination of whatever went before? Not only are in-person events not going away, we are increasingly adding new types of experiences (see my previous posting Fast, Fresh, and Furious: “Pecha Kucha”...the New Karaoke? for one such example). We're human and as someone so accurately observed "we still like to smell each other" (by the way, if anyone knows the attribution for this please let me know).

I therefore want to encourage all of us to look at things like events very differently and set different expectations. Most of our old and familiar ways and experiences such as theater-based film, events, conferences, meetings, etc. are NOT going to be eliminated by the new any more than radio was eliminated by TV (see my posting Books—the NEW old medium for similar reactions about new technologies).

Rather, we have more opportunities to augment these historical models with new ones.  Look at the profound power of TED prize-winner Jehame Noujaim's simple wish to bring the world together via film.  One person, one wish can make all the difference.  What's yours?

So what new opportunities can you think of to pursue human expression, communication, dialogue, interaction, sharing, discovery and learning? Could there be any more worthwhile pursuit and benefit?  I think not.

Oh Really? - Computational Photography

One of the most significant trends shaping our future is the redefining of what is "real" and specifically, bringing everything and anything into heightened and full three-dimensionality (or more), definition, and fidelity. I refer to "real" in the sense that we believe it "exists", and that we are increasingly:

• Losing the ability to distinguish between what is real and what is unreal.
• Losing the ability to distinguish between originals and copies, real and synthetic, real and unreal, real and virtual, here and not here.

This trend includes such things as the so-called 3D web, virtual worlds, the Internet of Things, 3D scanning and printing, and 3D human/computer interactions and interfaces, to name but a few. Will there be any such thing as "unreal" in the future? 

Since I am fascinated with and fixated on this topic, I'm going to develop it as a theme. Perhaps we'll call it "Oh Really?" and pursue it much further over a long period of time here at Off Course - On Target (OCOT). I've previously written a few articles on this subject, such as Coming Soon to a Desktop Near you:  Massive Amounts of 3D for the Masses and will cover this area more, but we'll also get into some of the many other aspects of the changing (let's hope!) ways we interface and interact with technology and are making these much more "natural" and "real".

For today, I want to briefly bring your attention to some exciting new developments coming out of Adobe Systems R&D work on new 3D camera lenses and some software they've developed for processing the resultant images. As you'll see, this technology opens up whole new possibilities, not just for photography, but for some amazing new ways of "playing with reality" by enabling you to go back into previously photographed scenes and change the images. Adobe is referring to this "computational photography" and as with many of the stories we cover here at OCOT, this one is interesting not only for the specific example, but especially for the larger topics and issues it reveals. 

Here's the story and it comes most appropriately from Dave Story, Vice President of Digital Imaging Product Development at Adobe, pictured here (thanks to Audioblog.fr) holding the original lens.

For a quick overview of Adobe's research, you may want to start by checking out "Adobe shows off 3D camera tech" on Crave. This topic originates from a recent demo Adobe did in France showing their initial R&D work with a prototype camera lens consisting of 19 different lens elements that provided multiple views at slightly different angles and what Dave described as being a bit like what a multi-faceted insect's eye would see. 

Fortunately for us, Luc from Audioblog.fr was at the demo with his video camera and has put up this 10-minute video clip.  When you first get to this site, you will also see that we still have a way to go with machine translation (in this case by Google), but bear with it and be sure to check out the video at the end to get the best understanding of what "computational photography" might lead to.

Of course, the serious fun begins once the hardware and software can take over and use these multiple images and angles to enable some very new and different possibilities. For example, they are now able to dramatically extend the concept and functionality of a "brush" in terms of what you can do with a "virtual brush" when working on photo images. In the video (and this screenshot from it) you can see Dave Story use what he calls a "focus/unfocus brush" to go into a photo and shift the focus from one statue to another in the photo. He goes on to suggest that they can also create a "3D healing brush" that would enable you to, for example, get rid of an obstruction in the original photo.

You will also see how they are able to move the "camera" after the photo has been taken. The movement in this case is very slight, but this idea of being able to capture moments and then go back and manipulate them AFTER the FACT is one of those possibilities which are equally and concurrently frightening and exciting. Something very powerful is going on here. 

Imagine If

Take this out quite a bit further and consider the potential when we have a full set of 3D data for every single pixel in digital images!  Imagine the manipulation you could do to both still and moving images; think about how you could go back into a scene or a "captured moment" and look at things from different angles, perspectives and focus. We've already been seeing advances in video camera work on movies and in televised sporting events, where they are able to move the camera through a full 360 degrees and all six degrees of motion, but now imagine YOU being able to move and manipulate the imagery on your own AND AFTER the fact!

The Future is Already Here

Or consider the uproar that has already been happening around the 3D "maps" that Google, Microsoft, and others are creating by having 3D mapping trucks drive through an area (large cities for now), taking a complete set of digital and laser images of the entire area. These images are then stitched together, so you can go from a spot on a map to "being there", enabling you to look around from that spot and see a full 360 degree surround of what you'd see if you were "really" there. The concern, by the way, is over privacy (or lack thereof) , and of what would be captured by all these images, which are constantly being updated.

This is another one of those things you can really only learn and appreciate by experiencing it, so if you have not already done so try this(I'll use Google for this example, Microsoft and Yahoo offer similar features):

• Go to Google Maps.
• Click on the "10 Market Street" listed in the left window (or anywhere in San Francisco for that matter).
• click on the "Street View" button on the top of the map area.
• Move the "little orange person" icon that shows up on the map to some intersection on the map.
• Move your cursor around in the street level photo image that appears to look around.
• Move your orange person icon up or down the street to look around there.

Scary?  Exciting?  Make you think about more possibilities if this is just rev 1.0?? YES!

And we think we have problems now (and we do) with not being able to tell the difference between an "original" photo, and one that has been altered!  Just imagine the degree to which this technology scales those problems exponentially!  Apropos to our larger theme here of full 3D reality and blurring the distinction between what is real and what is not, you can easily see how this recent example of "computational photography" is taking us in that direction and dramatically transforming what were previously just 2D photos, maps, and images.

"Computational photography is the future of photography," Story said. "The more things we can do that are impossible to do in a camera, the more powerful people's ability to express themselves becomes."

Quite true, and so once again, the great question that arises from such exciting new technology developments is what will you, and we collectively, DO with such newfound capabilities?  And what might we want to agree NOT to do?  What uses can you think of applying this to?  What problems can you now resolve with this?

I hope you will enjoy our foray into the world of 3D and the new reality, which of course is really just a matter of us finally having technology and ourselves catching up to the world as it's always been; VERY real and very multidimensional.  Oh Really?

del.icio.us tags: computational photography, Adobe, Dave Story, reality, real, unreal, photography, 3D mapping, 3D, 3D lenses, Oh Really?

Technorati tags: computational photography, Adobe, Dave Story, reality, real, unreal, photography, 3D mapping, 3D, 3D lenses, Oh Really?

Get out your Snow Shoes—Severe Snowstorms Hitting TV

In the context of television, I remember when the word “snow” meant that you had very poor reception. Under those conditions, the image on the screen looked like a snowstorm. Now, however, there is a whole new type of “snowstorm” hitting TV and this one is causing a MUCH more profound effect. In the past few weeks, I have seen a veritable storm of news showing how the “Snowflake Effect” (mass personalization) is deeply affecting TV.

Today I’m pointing out some examples to help bring the underlying pattern of the Snowflake Effect into focus, and so we can all understand and benefit from this in our current work and planning. In my role as the so-called “Strategic Futurist”, I strive to look much further into the future than is typical. Taking the long view helps all of us make smarter decisions NOW! This approach is more than just fanciful gazing into the future, and it is not purely strategic. Rather it is a very pragmatic and smart approach for providing good “decision support” for our everyday actions, choices, and guidance. By seizing the underlying principles and patterns, we can make significant advances toward mass personalization and a world optimized for each of us as unique individuals experiencing a stream of unique moments and opportunities.

So with this purpose in mind, here are some new directions in TV content—some concrete evidence of extremely telling and important trends that will affect our overall collections of content and our abilities to get content “just right” for each of us as “snowflakes” and for each “snowflake” moment.

Content Convergence

My first example illustrates the convergence of TV and video from multiple content sources. In this case, the combination of services and technology enables the mass personalization of TV viewing with personal or digital video recorders (PVR or DVR) along with the videos available from online outlets such as Amazon.

Last month Amazon and TiVo rolled out their new integrated offering called “Unbox”, which lets you combine the TV content you receive via your cable or satellite sources with access to buy or rent downloadable TV shows and movies available from Amazon. You can get more details from some recent reviews such as:

• “Amazon’s Unbox Marriage to TiVo”  by David Berlin on ZDNet

• “A Hands-On Look at Amazon Unbox on TiVo” by Matthew Moskovciak on Crave.

As these reviewers note, this first offering exhibits many of the shortcomings that most innovations suffer from, such as some awkward interface problems and difficulties displaying wide-screen HD content, but they will surely be addressed as they mature. The Unbox also provides a significant advantage over say, the recent Apple TV or the use of Microsoft Media Centers, because you don’t need a PC running in the background to make this all work. So this solution is a significant step towards making mass personalization of TV content much simpler and more likely to be adopted by the masses. It’s a great example of TV’s transition from a medium to content, something I discussed previously here at Off Course – On Target with “The Old Medium has become the New Content” Part 1 and Part 2 .

TiVo Home Movie Sharing

TiVo also recently rolled out another and perhaps even more significant capability called “TiVo Home Movie Sharing”. By providing you with a “private channel, this service lets you quickly and easily share your own video content (home movies) with other TiVo users. To provide this new service, TiVo joined forces with One True Media, an online service that helps people create video montages or home movies and provides a fast way of uploading your own content. Thomas Hawk’s Digital Connection has a more detailed review entitled  “TiVo Home Movie Sharing”.

Obviously this model is limited to those who are TiVo users, but look beyond this and imagine what will happen as this capability becomes more ubiquitous and universally available!  And of course, there would be no need to restrict this to “home movies” since it would work equally as well to share video content of any kind and would have value for businesses, education, and most organizations.

This example may help you understand some of my previous comments about the exponential explosion of “channels” for content (such as music and video). From the hundreds of channels currently available via cable and satellite to literally billions of personal channels, there would be at least as many, if not multiple, channels as people since each individual would want to have many different channels to match many different moods, situations and circumstances—watching alone versus with your family, daytime versus nighttime, news and documentaries versus entertainment, etc.

Google Ads TV (pun intended)

Google has also announced several new initiatives that provide further proof of this trend towards mass personalization of TV and video content. For example, in a continuation of their basic ad-based business model, Google recently entered the television advertising business by striking a deal with the large U.S. satellite TV operator EchoStar. Reuters covered the story in the PC Magazine article “Google Ads Move Onto Direct TV”. I am NOT pointing this out because of the advertising or business model issues, but because this is all being driven by the desire to get more direct connections with viewers and to provide the critical feedback loop component of the Snowflake Effect.

As the PC Magazine article notes, “Viewer feedback is the Holy Grail”. Granted, this is also being driven of course by advertising revenue and the pursuit of personalization of advertising, which can certainly have its dark side. However there is also the significant upside of developing these capabilities for improved “targeting” of information and there is no need for this to be restricted to advertising content or purposes. When it works to our own advantage and benefit, well “targeted” information is simply another example of getting it “just right” as in just the right information to just the right person(s) at just the right time, etc. And as noted in my previous post “JOOST = Juiced TV”, such targeted advertising has the ability to dramatically reduce the volume of advertising we experience by as much as 90%!

Google Engineering the Snowflake Effect

Donna Bogatin on ZDNet recently posted an even more direct example of the Snowflake Effect in her article “Google Television engineering targets mass TV personalization”. She does a nice job of summarizing some of the many benefits of “mass personalization” and notes how...

“The characteristics of mass media contrast sharply with the World Wide Web. Mass media channels typically provide limited content to many people; the Web provides vast amounts of information, most of interest to few. Mass media channels typically beget passive, largely anonymous consumption, while the Web provides many interactive opportunities like chatting, emailing and trading.”

Google’s stated goal is “to combine the best of both worlds: integrating the relaxing and effortless experience of mass media content with the interactive and personalized potential of the Web, providing mass personalization.”

Apple Aiming for TV Breakthrough

Not to be outdone by others and adding even more proof of how large and powerful the Snowflake Effect is, Apple has also made some significant announcements recently (see "Apple Aiming for TV Breakthrough"). Most relevant is their launch of Apple TV, a combination of a hardware device and some services that enable content, especially TV and video content, to be streamed from your PC or Mac to your television screen. More details are available on Wikipedia and in the CNN review “Apple TV best for ITunes addicts”

Of course, this is not a new capability, since many other manufacturers and service providers have been offering this for several years. But Apple hopes to be able to do for TV and video content what it did for music and audio content with the iPod. In fact, Apple TV requires the use of iTunes (running on a PC or Mac) to control the access to video and TV content. Personally I think this is also one of the more vexing limitations of the Apple model including the fact that a computer running iTunes is also required to make the system work. I was also surprised to find that there is currently no way to buy iTunes Store content directly from the Apple TV. You have to go to your PC or Mac to do this. This is why the Amazon/TiVo Unbox example is a potentially better model. But it would be folly to dismiss the “Apple factor” with the “emotional design”, mass appeal, and marketing that Apple is SO good at delivering.

Get out your Snow Shoes! (hey, I’m Canadian what did you expect?)

Some see all this recent activity around television as the “liberation of the living room”, which I agree is happening. However, I think this is missing the much larger trends—the transition of TV from an old medium to the new content, and the progression of mass personalization or the Snowflake Effect.

Consider for example that we are also seeing a serious surge in the migration of video content to many other devices and locations—on digital display screens on cell phones, PDA’s, and inside planes, trains and automobiles. The MUCH larger trend we need to notice is the ability to have any content, anywhere, anytime. And while “any” is the focus, our locus needs to be on how to well we can take on this transformation from “any” to “every” and down to just “one” (the right person/place/time/context etc.)

Now THAT is a snowstorm I want to be a part of!  I’m looking forward to hearing about other examples from you, as well as your observations and reflections after you’ve experienced some of these yourself. Put on your snowshoes and let’s start walking this talk.

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