Off Course-On Target

Is the Sky Really Falling?

I recently read the article "AT&T: Internet to hit full capacity by 2010", which is pretty much summarized by the title and the opening line:

"U.S. telecommunications giant AT&T has claimed that, without investment, the Internet's current network architecture will reach the limits of its capacity by 2010."

You can read more in the article, although they digress into some net neutrality issues.  However, this latest prediction reminds me of similar predictions throughout history that "the end is near", and I'd like to explore them further here.

The "Limits" of Physics

I can recall back in about the late 80's when experts were making similar predictions and warnings that we had reached the upper limit of how fast data could be transferred through phone lines via modems—9600 baud! These same experts claimed that we'd reached the limits of physics and it was just a "fact" that we needed to accept. 

As we can now see (with the benefit of hindsight, of course) that entirely new materials and techniques, such as optical fibre, compression algorithms and other breakthroughs, were developed to get around some of the limits that existed for wire-based data transfer. Wikipedia has a good history of modems, bandwidth, and the inventions along the way.

It's interesting to note that these types of warnings and stories are usually accompanied by quotes from the experts and other "facts", which prove that they are "true" and inevitable.  It reminds me of this quote from a  great scene in the movie Men in Black:

"Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."

BTW, you can find this quote and just about any other kind of movie-related trivia from the handy Internet Movie Database.

The "Limits" of Technology

Going much further back, dire warnings in the late 1800's said that we needed to seriously curtail the expanding use of horses, cows, and beasts of burden or else the planet would soon be covered in several feet of manure!  The experts had "done the math" and this was an inevitable and irrefutable prediction. But ooops! We didn't allow for the invention of the internal combustion engine, electrical power, and other energy sources that significantly reduced our reliance on animal-based power. Of course, we also didn't anticipate the whole new series of problems and challenges of global warming that many might argue make the manure problem look like a good one!

I sometimes have the sense that some of the more dire predictions about global warming and other imminent disasters are similarly exaggerated and misdirected. Please do NOT misconstrue my comments here to mean that we have nothing to worry about or to work on. I want to champion quite the opposite reaction!  To be sure, all of us have much to be concerned about. We need to be more diligent and work harder than ever to ensure the sustainability of ourselves and our environment so that we can ensure an ever brighter future for us all. 

The "Limits" of Human Capacity, Foresight, and Imagination

History has shown that we are capable of doing some VERY stupid things and can exhibit great ignorance and lack of foresight.  However, as illustrated by my prior examples, history also shows that we need to take into account our even greater human capacity for invention, discovery, creativity, innovation, and design.

I'm sure that many of you may have similar Chicken Little "the sky is falling" * stories, and I'd be most appreciative if you'd post these to your blogs or send comments here to help all of us learn from these historical examples.

I'm was in Mexico recently and I'm told that the story of Chicken Little (and the saying "the sky is falling") are well known there and translates to El Cielo Se Esta Cayendo. For those not familiar with this reference the previous link will give you the background.

In the end, I have huge faith in our collective powers for invention, creativity,  innovation and designing solutions. What we need to watch out for is the flip side of this where we become smug, arrogant, or cynical based on what we "know for sure" today.  I hope that examples such as this latest prediction about the limits of Internet capacity will only serve to help us balance these forces and inspire and motivate us all to work towards new ways to improve our lives and those of all others. 

Rather than imagine what we'll know for sure tomorrow, imagine if ................ Not only is the sky NOT falling, it is the limit of what is possible.

Human History is additive NOT subtractive!

When something big, new, and innovative comes along, most of the affected domain's “experts” and pundits typically decry the loss of the "good old ways" and lament how they are going to surely be eliminated by the new.  A common response, but they are WRONG!

However, when we look at the historical record, we rarely see the elimination of old practices and experiences. Instead, while the old is most often dramatically changed in terms of its role and its percentage of use, the new game in town usually augments the original purpose and value proposition of the old.

Let’s use radio as an example. When radio first came along, the experts and pundits predicted it would eliminate newspapers. When TV came along, they claimed TV was going to eliminate radio.  After all, who would want a talking box when we could have talking pictures?  But look at where we are in 2008!  In fact, no new media in history has ever eliminated the older media type that preceded it! 

Radio is not only a viable media, but one that is going through a resurgence and increase in effectiveness, reach and use.  The way we use radio, and the role it plays in our lives, HAS changed dramatically of course. For example, when was the last time you remember sitting down with your family to listen to an evening radio show. Yet, in the early days of radio, this happened all the time!

However, radio has not diminished at all in its value and use—it's just changed in how, when, and where we use it.  With the advent of satellite radio, HD radio, Web-based radio, podcasts, etc., we are in fact seeing radio go through its own exponential change and growth.  So the “death” of radio, as with most “old things” was greatly exaggerated, to say the least.

We've witnessed the same trend countless times with other technologies, such as predictions that airplanes were going to eliminate automobiles and trains, how online or eLearning was going to eliminate teachers and classrooms, how eBusiness was going to eliminate stores and shopping...and the list goes on. I'm sure you can name other (and better) examples of this same trend.  I'd like to hear about them.

Living in a World of Exponential Change

Not only has the new not eliminated the old, but it has caused exponential change and growth. This is another example of why I believe we are Living in a World of Exponential Change.  In my previous post "The Future is about Winning NOT Losing!", I used the example of the changes and future of film and video as an example and how recent phenomena, such as YouTube, Flickr and Pangea Day, bear witness to exponential change.

Not only is there exponential growth in the volume of video-based content, but even more importantly is the explosion of growth taking place on the production side—people creating and publishing video content in greater volume and diversity. This increase on the production side is being met by equal or even greater growth on the consumer side with the increased number and diversity of those who are watching, interacting, being inspired ,and moved to taking action by film and videos. Taken together we are truly talking about exponential growth! 

But growth, in and of itself, is not enough. I’m big on ensuring that we maintain a focus on the value proposition and underlying purpose of the things we do (see my postings and podcasts on Perfecting the Irrelevant and Flapping for more details on my views about how we confuse value proposition with activities for example).  How do each of these examples fulfill (or not!) the value propositions of improving the ways we as humans can communicate, express ourselves, see other points of view, and provide outlets for our creativity and innovation?  From where I sit, we now have more and more ways to deliver on these value propositions and we ARE delivering! What do you think?

The Future is about Winning!

Recently, I participated in a meeting with colleagues at Autodesk Inc. on the Future of Events (FOE), where we tackled how to make events, such as conferences, Autodesk University, user groups such as AUGI, communities, etc., more green and sustainable.

Autodesk Commitment to the Environment

While this post is not directly about the topic of sustainability and the environment, I’m delighted with the seriousness and depth with which we are treating these issues at Autodesk. Corporately, we have a strong Environmental Commitment and Environmental Policy. But more important to me is how this initiative is being distributed throughout the entire company. We are being encouraged to make it our responsibility both as employees and citizens.

This recent FOE meeting focused on finding ways to realize these commitments, policies, and goals through Autodesk events. The meeting was but one example of how we are committed to improving the environmental performance of both our own business operations and educating ourselves and partners to do the same.  In addition, we are committed to helping our customers improve the environmental performance of their designs through the software and technology we develop. I quite like that this has a win-win quality to it. These priorities and commitments are equally as important to the long-term success of making the world a better and healthier place as they are to our success as a company.

Winning vs. Losing

One thing that prompted me to write this posting were comments in the FOE meeting about how much some of us feel we have lost when it comes to event-based experiences. For example, people reminisced about how great going to a movie theater used to be—with all the smells, sounds and other very visceral characteristics. One participant added how it was also a family outing, and even though one memory included getting gum stuck in her hair, it was still remembered as a totally wonderful experience.

Many in the room lamented what they saw as the decline and loss of the "good old" movie-going experience. They felt that today more people seem to sit alone in front of their TV or computer screens to watch movies, films and video. I think this view is just the glass half full vs glass half empty way of looking at things.  I don't doubt that there are statistics to support that more  individual viewing is going on and that movie theatre attendance is down.  But let's be sure to look at the whole picture here (sorry, I couldn't resist). 

Best I can tell, the total picture shows that we have more people watching (and making) more movies, pictures, and films than ever before in history.  Being a glass-half-full type of person, I do not view the change of movie-watching habits as a loss (we can still have large group movie-going experiences for the most part), but as a great opportunity to have more choices and results from experiences with film, movies, and video (to pick but a few examples). What's more, the results of this increase in movie and video production and consumption is quite profound and powerful as a timely example demonstrated very well. 

Being a big believer in synchronicity, I was not surprised that on the same day as the FOE meeting, the New York Times printed “Bringing the World Together via Film” , an article about Pangea Day,  an event which "endeavors to bring the world together and promote understanding and tolerance through film." According to the article, the power of film is substantially increased when we extend this from the domain of experts only and include “the rest of us” who might be so inclined to create some original film and video. Far from losing the “good old” movie theatre experience,  we are gaining more experiences and more options to augment and increase the effect of film and video.  Sounds more like winning than losing to me, and to badly paraphrase the Bill Withers song "Use Me": If it feels this good to lose, then keep on losing me until you lose me up!

Learning from Past Patterns?

Why is it that whenever something new and innovative comes along, people perceive that it means the elimination of whatever went before? Not only are in-person events not going away, we are increasingly adding new types of experiences (see my previous posting Fast, Fresh, and Furious: “Pecha Kucha”...the New Karaoke? for one such example). We're human and as someone so accurately observed "we still like to smell each other" (by the way, if anyone knows the attribution for this please let me know).

I therefore want to encourage all of us to look at things like events very differently and set different expectations. Most of our old and familiar ways and experiences such as theater-based film, events, conferences, meetings, etc. are NOT going to be eliminated by the new any more than radio was eliminated by TV (see my posting Books—the NEW old medium for similar reactions about new technologies).

Rather, we have more opportunities to augment these historical models with new ones.  Look at the profound power of TED prize-winner Jehame Noujaim's simple wish to bring the world together via film.  One person, one wish can make all the difference.  What's yours?

So what new opportunities can you think of to pursue human expression, communication, dialogue, interaction, sharing, discovery and learning? Could there be any more worthwhile pursuit and benefit?  I think not.

Happy 50th Birthday, LEGO™ blocks!!

Those who know me, have heard me speak, or have read my writings know that one of my longtime favorite models and metaphors is that of LEGO blocks.

Actually, it was my children playing with them 20 years ago that caused one of my greater epiphanies and led me to develop the concept of Learning Objects back in 1992 and I plan to post this fun story on the origin of Learning Objects here on OCOT.

Although my LEGO block model is often criticized for being too simple, I still find it to be a powerful and profound one precisely because of its simplicity.

So how could I NOT mention this is the 50th anniversary of the ubiquitous blocks that were introduced in 1958? According to a January 28, 2008 article on Gearlog, "There are about 62 LEGO bricks for every one of the world's 6 billion inhabitants" and "7 LEGO sets are sold by retailers every second around the world."

• Check out this fun timeline that Gizmodo put together on the illustrated history of LEGO.
• View this list from Jennifer DeLeo at PC Magazine of "The Ten Coolest LEGO Inspired Gadgets"?  The list includes everything from LEGO iPod Stereo Speakers, a homemade LEGO MP3 player, a hard drive, a watch and a USB charger. 

What fun!

I've also previously written about  "The LEGO of Gadgets" and the LEGO-like attributes of the fun electronic components from Bug Labs that you can literally snap together to create your own new devices. Check it out!

In the abstract and from my perspective, the LEGO block model:

• Makes infinite scalability a practical reality. It addresses what I've previously referred to as "Living in a World of Exponential Change" and "The Snowflake Effect" of mass personalization at a global scale by enabling you to create infinite new combinations or "assemblies" that are entirely (though not necessarily) created from pre-existing blocks.
• Is based on having a large collection of very, very small "blocks" that can be created in advance of a given need or use. This is a key part of enabling a strategy of "readiness for the unexpected" and dealing with exponential rates of change.
• Adds to the "pool" of blocks for future reuse and re-purposing, because in many cases the creation of new assemblies causes new blocks to be made.
• The "blocks" can come from any source at any time and with no need for any pre-agreements or design.
• Is based on a low-level and simple standard that enables each block to be "snapped" to any other block (size of "pins" in actual LEGO blocks is always the same)
• Each block is "just right" in terms of size—as small as possible, but not one bit smaller (to misquote Einstein)—when it meets two criteria:
  • It can stand by itself, ready for use.
  • It would almost never be used by itself, since it is too small to be of value on its own.
• It enables models that cover both ends of the spectrum, providing for maximum repurposing AND maximum relevance and personalization.

And just to be clear, these "blocks" and this LEGO block model can be applied to literally anything and is certainly not limited to content. For example, I've worked with others to develop applications of this same model for human competencies, software, music. You can also see examples of "hard" objects, such as those in the top ten list mentioned at the beginning.

What applications or ideas do YOU have for the application of this LEGO block model?

Happy 50th Birthday, LEGO!  I, for one, am planning on using you more than ever in the next 50 years AND I plan on being here to help celebrate your 100th anniversary! 

Serious Play: Are We Humans the Biggest Computer of All?

Would you be interested in a future where the pursuit of fun and enjoyment was one our our major roles in life because it leads to solving extraordinarily large and complex world problems? For example, what if all of us helped to digitize all the content contained in all the books in the world? Almost none of this content is currently available on the Web or in any digital form and as such, is largely inaccessible to most. And would you be interested in a world where the relationship between computers and humans is a very positive and symbiotic one? I know I would. 

I'd like to bring your attention to some of the ways in which this is already happening. Let's see if this excites you so much that you'd like to not only participate in some of these processes, but also start to use some of these models to help solve some of the problems you and your profession or areas of interest face.

In my previous posting "Moving aLOM", I mentioned some of the exciting, yet daunting, challenges of the future of metadata, such as how to create, in staggering volume, some of the more "subjective" metadata—things like the infinite characteristics that describe people, places, and things—where we humans are still the only source. This effort would include things like creating metadata for all the images and videos out there—still a largely unsolved problem—the absence of which not only makes them very hard to find, but also makes the Web and computers very inaccessible to the visually impaired, which, with age, might include a lot of us!

The Exciting Work of Luis von Ahn

Perhaps most notable in this area is a relatively young new professor at Carnegie Mellon University, Luis von Ahn, standing at right in this photo with his PhD advisor Manuel Blum. Luis has already completed some amazing work on what he refers to as "human computation" and how to put "wasted" human cycles to use in solving problems a computer cannot solve at this point in time, but humans can solve easily. Luis also picks up on a theme we have discussed here on Off Course - On Target in many other contexts—the power of the "network effect" achieved by connecting everything and every one together. Human computation is obviously focused on the latter, and Luis wants us to consider having all of our brains connected together as an extremely advanced large-scale distributive processing unit. Not to worry, no wires or direct connections to your head are required!

Before I go any further, and especially if you are more of a visual and auditory learner, let me recommend that you immediately watch this talk called "Human Computation" that Luis gave on July 26, 2006, about the power of human cycles. This 51-minute talk is part of the Google Video Text Talk series (also highly recommended), and while it is long by some current standards, I feel very comfortable recommending this to you, since I'm convinced you'll agree it was a VERY good use of your time (actually Luis' talk only runs 40 minutes, and is followed by about 10 minutes of a good Q&A session).

Another excellent reference for you, which contains more fascinating details and examples of von Ahn's work, can be found in Clive Thompson's article "For Certain Tasks, the Cortex Still Beats the CPU"  in the June 2007 edition of Wired magazine.

Games with a Purpose

But for those who don't have the time right now to look at these things more, here is a quick synthesis of what I find so exciting and interesting about the innovative use of our human "compute cycles", and the use of "fun and games" for very significant and "serious" results. What von Ahn likes to call "games with a purpose".

One of the most common and effective examples of this type of human computation is one of Luis' first applications, which is known as "Captcha". The name may be new to you, but I'm sure you're already a veteran Captcha expert! Captchas are those slightly difficult to make out words that you are asked to identify and type into a box when you are signing up for web sites. Captchas are used for responses online and in other situations where we want to prevent automated "bots" from generating unending amounts of "spam" or other undesirable exploitations of such online experiences. The problem is how to differentiate between a human response and a computer response, and Captchas are a simple solution to this problem, as well as a simple example of a problem that computers can't solve by themselves.

In itself, this doesn't sound like that interesting of a problem, although certainly it is an annoying one! However, part of what I would see as Luis' brilliance is in the more primary problems he is solving with this process.

In the case of Captcha, the real problem being solved pertains to my initial reference about the challenge of digitizing all the content of the world's printed matter, such as books. For more background on this digitizing and scanning challenge, you may want to refer to my previous posting from Jan 2007 "Books—the NEW old medium". Specifically, the problem is with all the words found in printed matter that scanning and conversion technology cannot make out, because the medium has a crease running through it, or it is partly missing, or other factors which make it impossible for the technology to recognize the words correctly.  Yet, show these words to almost any one of us and we can easily recognize the word.

So all those "fuzzy" words in Captchas are NOT just some random words that are blurred to fool a computer. Instead, these are the images of words which scanning technology has failed to recognize correctly! Luis refers to this specific application as ReCaptcha and you'll find much more information there, as well as instructions and free plugins for you to embed within your own sites, blogs, etc.

And that's just one side of why Luis von Ahn was awarded one of the MacArthur "Genius" awards and a Microsoft Research grant, for he has also managed to put these types of solutions into a game format that starts to look at solving these kinds of problems at a scale that is truly breathtaking! 

Solving World Problems or Playing Solitaire?

In his talks, Luis likes to use a very compelling metric of human-hours, and he often compares statistics on the the amount of human-hours that are "wasted", in his opinion, doing something like playing Solitaire on a computer. I too have always been amazed at the number of people I observe when walking down the aisles of an airplane, for example, who are hard at "work" playing Solitaire, but I had no idea just how much time is spent on this. According to the statistics that Luis uses, over 9 billion human-hours were expended playing Solitaire in 2003 alone! Better yet, he puts this into perspective by comparing this activity to such things as:

• The building of the New York City Empire State building, which consumed about 7 million human-hours, and thus equates to just 6.8 hours of collective Solitaire playing.
• Building the entire Panama Canal, which took 20 million human-hours and amounts to less than a day of collective solitaire playing!

Metadata for All Images?

Now imagine if we were able to put this kind of "human computation" to more effective use AND still do so within the format of games that people can enjoy doing themselves! One example is another one of Luis' creations, and one that has been running with staggering results for over three years called the ESP Game. As we've discussed many times, experiential "learning by doing" is often one of the best ways to learn about something new, so I'd encourage you to not only read about the ESP Game on that site, but to play it for awhile. (Caution: can be very addictive and time consuming!) When you do, you'll see how it puts two or more players (there is also a single player version) into a friendly competition by typing in descriptive words for a given photo (that metadata thing again), and they get points whenever they both type in the same word.

So what? While progress is being made in image recognition technology, this is still largely a problem that computers cannot do. And ask yourself, do YOU take the time to "tag" or create all the metadata for the photos and videos that YOU post, such as who and what is in the photo? Didn't think so. Yet by using this type of game format, the ESP Game has been running for over three years with no drop off in popularity and as of mid-2006, it was very fast, very cheap, and very accurate. If this were done as a popular online game site, it would be possible to label all the images on Google Image Search in just a few weeks! No surprise then that the ESP Game has already been licensed by Google in the form of the Google Image Labeler, and is used to improve the accuracy of the Google Image Search. We humans are relatively competitive animals and we like to do what we enjoy, so this approach appears to have a lot of promise.

Yes, but WHERE is that object in the photo?

Another problem that is even more challenging than identifying WHAT objects are in the image is identifying WHERE they are in the image. To do this, Luis has created another game called "PeekaBoom". The first player sees an image along with a word that describes an object within the image, and then clicks on the image where the named object is located. The second player sees only the object that the first player clicked on and types the word associated to that object. Once the second player guesses the correct word, the two players move on to the next image and switch roles. More details are explained in the video (you really should take the time to watch it!).

Human Computer Relations: Parasitic or Symbiotic?

Luis also notes how this transforms the current relationship between humans and computers from what he calls a parasitic relationship to a symbiotic one where:

"...humans solve some problems, computers solve others, and together we work to create a better world."

Sound far fetched? Well, in the less than two years that his limited experiment of the ESP Game has run, over 75,000 players have come up with over 15 million "agreements" (matched words). This rate would indicate that 5,000 players playing simultaneously could label all images on Google Images in about two months. Think about that...5,000 is NOT a very big number when you consider the numbers on many gaming sites. Therefore, it should be possible to label all the images on the Web in a few months. Again, I strongly recommend that you check out the video to get not only more details, but to see just how accurate, pragmatic, and promising this approach is. 

For example, it turns out that the results of a game such as PeekaBoom can in turn be used to help train computers to recognize objects and their location. Turns out that one of the reasons that computers are not yet very good at this type of object recognition and automated metadata generation is that there is very little data and examples to use to "train" the computers on how to do it. By capturing the results of all the human play in location identification of objects within images, this data can then be used to train computers to do the same thing"—allowing us move on to new challenges... and more fun.

Super Side Effects

I think you'll agree that this approach not only shows great promise in terms of solving some very large scale problems, but has some surprising and equally amazing "side effects", like how some people have used this to help them learn a language. This approach has spawned its own game called Babble, where two English-speaking players are shown a sentence in a foreign language that neither of them speak, and are presented with a list of possible meanings (in English) below each word. Players try to agree upon a set of English words that forms the most coherent sentence. The result is that this activity is surprisingly effective in translating foreign text into English without requiring anyone fluent in both languages. Think of the possibilities of this running at a larger scale!

Another "side effect" of this approach is how many players have noted that they end up finding other people who think very much like them, and thus they have a great sense of "intimacy" and closeness with their counterparts who play these games. Therefore, many  ask if they can find out who their anonymous competitors are to continue the conversation. At this point in time, all the game players are anonymous and no identities are revealed, but one could imagine this being used as a way to help discover other people "like you"—ones you'd want to meet and get to know better.

Common Sense Isn't that Common; yet!

And lastly from von Ahn's work, check out his new game Verbosity, which helps to generate what he calls "common sense facts" (again just more metadata really). One player is given a word and the other tries to guess what it is by completing fill-in-the-blank-type templates, such as "It is a type of ____" or "It contains ___".  The player who entered the original word can answer "true" or "false", but can't use the word itself. All this is very much like some party games that many of you have probably played, but the important difference here goes back to the original point of the summative network effect and how this can all be put to greater use. In the example that Luis shows in his presentation, the word "milk" would have some common sense facts such as;

• It is white
• It is a liquid
• It is often used to eat cereal
• It has lactose

Again, computers can not currently solve this kind of problem, and it is another an example of the need for massive amounts of metadata. Imagine if we started generating massive volumes of these "common sense facts" and they were readily available to all. 

More Competition = Less Carbon?

Lest you should think this is just a "one man show" from Luis von Ahn, I want to point out that there are many others who have been developing, adopting, and adapting similar models. For example, "Carbonrally: Carbon Challenge", which you can learn more about from the Nov. 20th, 2007 Webware post "Carbonrally: My carbon footprint's smaller than yours" by Martin LaMonica, is an application that is showing some great promise for improving the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions or the "carbon footprint" of individuals and organizations alike. Carbonrally adds the dimension of some fun and healthy competition to do better than others. As Martin describes it, Carbonrally is "tapping into people's tribal competitive spirit".

Whew!  That's quite an introduction to what I believe is both a powerful and profound pattern emerging—where the natural pursuit of fun, healthy competition, and challenges are combined into a game-based model that has already shown some of the ways we can solve large-scale present and future problems. It also creates a whole new relationship between us and technology. This model is not only interesting and fun, but it is a fascinating example of "user generated metadata", which I mentioned in my previous "Moving aLOM" posting.

Your Turn to Play!

Besides raising your awareness about "human computation" and the power of this approach, I also want to encourage all of us to put more time and energy into figuring out how we can inject more fun into work and other problem-solving situations. As you do so, I think you'll see an important job or task or problem  can be more fun if it's solved with some kind of game play, and where the solution remains very much a human one.

We can not, for now at least, expect computers to come up with such fun and game-based solutions by themselves! 

For starters, if you have websites or other applications where you have problems preventing spam or other misuses, consider taking advantage of some of the freely available plugins and nullities, such as those from the ReCaptcha site. Longer term though, please put some thought into which problems you could address with this model, and the ways you could do so by injecting the fun and challenge of a game-based approach into the more serious problems you need to solve...then share them with us here at Off Course - On Target.

I'm reminded of the great quote from Brian Suton-Smith who said:

"The opposite of play is not work; its depression!"

And I look forward to hearing all the innovative and creative ways you will come up with to solve problems—large and small—and replace depression with play. Have fun!

The Encyclopedia of Life and the Network Effect

We are rapidly evolving towards a networked world—NOT "network"  in the technical sense, but the concept of networks wherein literally everything and everyone is a "node" and is connected to every other node. As this degree of connectivity becomes more and more pervasive, a whole new set of characteristics begin to emerge and our world as we've known it changes dramatically. 

One of these characteristics or traits of a networked world is what has been referred to as the network effect wherein the addition of more "nodes" multiplies the value to all the other nodes and to the network overall. Historical examples include technology such as the telephone, cell phones, FAX machines, e-mail, IM, etc., where we can easily see the power of the network effect as each new "member" or node of these networks multiples value of the overall network of all the other nodes.  For example, the value of the first cell phone, FAX or e-mail was essentially zero, and the addition of each unit multiplied the value for everyone else in the "network".   As a result, as soon as you had one of these items you immediately started persuading everyone else to get one because otherwise the value to you was diminished.  An early example of the so called "viral marketing" effect we are seeing much more of now.

The term "network effect" was first coined by Robert Metcalf, a brilliant mind and the founder of Ethernet, among many other things. But what is becoming clearer is that the network effect is not limited to technical networks and is, in fact, extremely pervasive. The Encyclopedia of Life is one such application of this network effect.

Encyclopedia of Life

The Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) is best summarized by the opening text on the site:

"Comprehensive, collaborative, ever-growing, and personalized, the Encyclopedia of Life is an ecosystem of web sites that makes all key information about life on Earth accessible to anyone, anywhere in the world. Our goal is to create a constantly evolving encyclopedia that lives on the Internet, with contributions from scientists and amateurs alike. To transform the science of biology, and inspire a new generation of scientists, by aggregating all known data about every living species. And ultimately, to increase our collective understanding of life on Earth, and safeguard the richest possible spectrum of biodiversity.

And here is a good review of EOL by National Geographic News as well as the ubiquitous Wikipedia reference.

Of course pictures and video are even better so be sure to check out their video clip that will quickly show you how EOL works and and this collection of demonstration pages that show how rich and extendable the data will is. 

If you have a bit more time  (about 22 minutes) I highly recommend that you watch the following video:

As E.O. Wilson accepts his 2007 TED Prize, he makes a plea on behalf of his constituents, the insects and small creatures, to learn more about our biosphere. We know so little about nature, he says, that we're still discovering tiny organisms indispensable to life; yet we're still steadily destroying nature. Wilson identifies five grave threats to biodiversity (a term he coined), using the acronym HIPPO, and makes his TED wish: that we will work together on the Encyclopedia of Life, a web-based compendium of data from scientists and amateurs on every aspect of the biosphere.

But EOL represents even more than the two themes I've touched on here and in my last post. More about this next time.

Oh Really? - Computational Photography

One of the most significant trends shaping our future is the redefining of what is "real" and specifically, bringing everything and anything into heightened and full three-dimensionality (or more), definition, and fidelity. I refer to "real" in the sense that we believe it "exists", and that we are increasingly:

• Losing the ability to distinguish between what is real and what is unreal.
• Losing the ability to distinguish between originals and copies, real and synthetic, real and unreal, real and virtual, here and not here.

This trend includes such things as the so-called 3D web, virtual worlds, the Internet of Things, 3D scanning and printing, and 3D human/computer interactions and interfaces, to name but a few. Will there be any such thing as "unreal" in the future? 

Since I am fascinated with and fixated on this topic, I'm going to develop it as a theme. Perhaps we'll call it "Oh Really?" and pursue it much further over a long period of time here at Off Course - On Target (OCOT). I've previously written a few articles on this subject, such as Coming Soon to a Desktop Near you:  Massive Amounts of 3D for the Masses and will cover this area more, but we'll also get into some of the many other aspects of the changing (let's hope!) ways we interface and interact with technology and are making these much more "natural" and "real".

For today, I want to briefly bring your attention to some exciting new developments coming out of Adobe Systems R&D work on new 3D camera lenses and some software they've developed for processing the resultant images. As you'll see, this technology opens up whole new possibilities, not just for photography, but for some amazing new ways of "playing with reality" by enabling you to go back into previously photographed scenes and change the images. Adobe is referring to this "computational photography" and as with many of the stories we cover here at OCOT, this one is interesting not only for the specific example, but especially for the larger topics and issues it reveals. 

Here's the story and it comes most appropriately from Dave Story, Vice President of Digital Imaging Product Development at Adobe, pictured here (thanks to Audioblog.fr) holding the original lens.

For a quick overview of Adobe's research, you may want to start by checking out "Adobe shows off 3D camera tech" on Crave. This topic originates from a recent demo Adobe did in France showing their initial R&D work with a prototype camera lens consisting of 19 different lens elements that provided multiple views at slightly different angles and what Dave described as being a bit like what a multi-faceted insect's eye would see. 

Fortunately for us, Luc from Audioblog.fr was at the demo with his video camera and has put up this 10-minute video clip.  When you first get to this site, you will also see that we still have a way to go with machine translation (in this case by Google), but bear with it and be sure to check out the video at the end to get the best understanding of what "computational photography" might lead to.

Of course, the serious fun begins once the hardware and software can take over and use these multiple images and angles to enable some very new and different possibilities. For example, they are now able to dramatically extend the concept and functionality of a "brush" in terms of what you can do with a "virtual brush" when working on photo images. In the video (and this screenshot from it) you can see Dave Story use what he calls a "focus/unfocus brush" to go into a photo and shift the focus from one statue to another in the photo. He goes on to suggest that they can also create a "3D healing brush" that would enable you to, for example, get rid of an obstruction in the original photo.

You will also see how they are able to move the "camera" after the photo has been taken. The movement in this case is very slight, but this idea of being able to capture moments and then go back and manipulate them AFTER the FACT is one of those possibilities which are equally and concurrently frightening and exciting. Something very powerful is going on here. 

Imagine If

Take this out quite a bit further and consider the potential when we have a full set of 3D data for every single pixel in digital images!  Imagine the manipulation you could do to both still and moving images; think about how you could go back into a scene or a "captured moment" and look at things from different angles, perspectives and focus. We've already been seeing advances in video camera work on movies and in televised sporting events, where they are able to move the camera through a full 360 degrees and all six degrees of motion, but now imagine YOU being able to move and manipulate the imagery on your own AND AFTER the fact!

The Future is Already Here

Or consider the uproar that has already been happening around the 3D "maps" that Google, Microsoft, and others are creating by having 3D mapping trucks drive through an area (large cities for now), taking a complete set of digital and laser images of the entire area. These images are then stitched together, so you can go from a spot on a map to "being there", enabling you to look around from that spot and see a full 360 degree surround of what you'd see if you were "really" there. The concern, by the way, is over privacy (or lack thereof) , and of what would be captured by all these images, which are constantly being updated.

This is another one of those things you can really only learn and appreciate by experiencing it, so if you have not already done so try this(I'll use Google for this example, Microsoft and Yahoo offer similar features):

• Go to Google Maps.
• Click on the "10 Market Street" listed in the left window (or anywhere in San Francisco for that matter).
• click on the "Street View" button on the top of the map area.
• Move the "little orange person" icon that shows up on the map to some intersection on the map.
• Move your cursor around in the street level photo image that appears to look around.
• Move your orange person icon up or down the street to look around there.

Scary?  Exciting?  Make you think about more possibilities if this is just rev 1.0?? YES!

And we think we have problems now (and we do) with not being able to tell the difference between an "original" photo, and one that has been altered!  Just imagine the degree to which this technology scales those problems exponentially!  Apropos to our larger theme here of full 3D reality and blurring the distinction between what is real and what is not, you can easily see how this recent example of "computational photography" is taking us in that direction and dramatically transforming what were previously just 2D photos, maps, and images.

"Computational photography is the future of photography," Story said. "The more things we can do that are impossible to do in a camera, the more powerful people's ability to express themselves becomes."

Quite true, and so once again, the great question that arises from such exciting new technology developments is what will you, and we collectively, DO with such newfound capabilities?  And what might we want to agree NOT to do?  What uses can you think of applying this to?  What problems can you now resolve with this?

I hope you will enjoy our foray into the world of 3D and the new reality, which of course is really just a matter of us finally having technology and ourselves catching up to the world as it's always been; VERY real and very multidimensional.  Oh Really?

del.icio.us tags: computational photography, Adobe, Dave Story, reality, real, unreal, photography, 3D mapping, 3D, 3D lenses, Oh Really?

Technorati tags: computational photography, Adobe, Dave Story, reality, real, unreal, photography, 3D mapping, 3D, 3D lenses, Oh Really?

Memories of Philip Dodds: We've Lost a Great Navigator, but Not Our Way

It was a sad weekend for me and many others as we received the news on Saturday morning that Phil Dodds had slipped away peacefully after a long and valiant battle with cancer.

It has taken me awhile to be able to write this, but I join the many others who share in the wide range of emotions and memories invoked by thinking of Phil. 

Referencing one of Phil's many claims to fame when he starred as a young man in the classic movie "Close Encounters of a Third Kind",  (center person in the screenshot from the movie), Elliott Masie wrote this typically thoughtful message:

"What are we saying to each other?"

That was a single line, spoken by the sound engineer at the end of Close Encounters of a Third Kind, as he played chords and a friendly alien spaceship played music back.

The role was played by a young sound engineer who was spotted by Steven Spielberg and given the on-screen role as the interface between these two worlds. That man, Philip Dodds, was still young and inventive, when he passed away this Saturday morning.

Philip Dodds was the Chief Architect of SCORM and the force behind sharable and reusable content. He was deeply involved in the evolution of interactive multimedia and expanding the possibilities for learning via technology.

If you use a Learning Management System, author an interactive learning module, or talk about the future of Web 2.0, take a moment to thank a man who you probably never met. Philip's work was KEY and CRITICAL to the exciting world of learning, knowledge management, and collaboration that we take for granted.

Philip's dreams were to create a global set of standards and specifications that would allow content to be searchable, reusable, and expandable.

Philip, we thank you for all that you have done, and we'll keep asking that question: "What are we saying to each other?"

With respect and sadness,

Elliott Masie

For those of you who knew Phil well and are feeling a bit melancholy, as Tom King put it, you may want to head over to this thread that Tom started on Phil on the AICC blog. Phil may be most publicly remembered as "the father of SCORM" or Shareable Content Object Reference Model but there is so much more that Phil accomplished, and Tom kindly provided links to some of many other ways that Phil left his imprint on this world. As Tom reflected in a recent e-mail, "perhaps reading the comments will be a bit uplifting for you too." Please add your memories of Phil to the thread as well, and here are a few of mine:

My Memories of Phil Dodds:

I remember all those late night and early morning meetings working on what Phil usually referred to as "the devil is in the details" and his quips about "working code trumps all theories". 

While many of these meetings were held in conjunction with a standards meeting of IEEE or AICC or ADL or ISO meetings in yet another city in yet another meeting room, we also had many of these meetings out at Phil and Sue's wonderful and historical Weems family farm house in Annapolis, Maryland.

I dug up this photo as it is so very fitting of Phil and these memories.  Not only does this show Phil (on the left), beaming as always, in front of a flip chart full of notes after one of these many meetings at the farm, but this is the photo that Phil chose to send me a few months ago when we were dealing with the loss of another great contributor, Claude Ostyn who is in the middle of this picture, along with Tyde Richards on the right.

Sue and Phil always encouraged us to stay over for the night, and though part of Phil's ulterior motive was to get more work done, it was also to have more time in the evenings to play music, enjoy a good Scotch, and discuss some of the wonderful history of the original Weems house and family. 

If the name Weems is not familiar to you, in the days before there was Global Positioning Systems or GPS, it was Phil's grandfather and namesake, Captain Philip Van Horn Weems, the "Grand Old Man of Navigation" who modernized celestial navigation with the ingenious "Weems System of Navigation" and who invented such things as the Second Setting Watch.

I fondly recall Phil recounting some of the of the Weems family history and tales of his grandfather as we were taking a break from SCORM work and sitting in the study in the farmhouse which would more accurately be described as a wing of the Smithsonian navigation museum. Phil told of how Charles Lindbergh studied with Weems before attempting his 1928 transatlantic flight, and Admiral Byrd, a classmate of Weems at the Naval Academy, came to Weems for instruction before setting out for the North Pole.

Whether he knew it or not, Phil admirably carried on this family tradition by acting in so many ways as the "grand old navigator" himself for so many of us.  It was like a déjà vu experience for me to read in the following tribute to Captain Philip Weems:

Captain Philip Van Horn Weems, the "Grand Old Man of Navigation," is renowned as a pioneer in the field. He modernized navigation by simplifying techniques; invented and adapted new, time saving methods; and most significantly, shared this knowledge through the tireless teaching of his discoveries and insights. His pupils were naval officers and adventurers. His advancements, which began during his career as a naval officer, now stretch across all types of navigation - from maritime to aeronautic, from underwater to outer space.

Just as with his grandfather before him, Phil too was a pioneer, inventor, engineer, and teacher who worked tirelessly to convert his visions to explicit form and share them with all of us so passionately.  Phil has left us with a plethora of navigational instruments, tables and maps in the form of things like SCORM documents and tools, ADL-R and so much more to help chart our way forward in the often confusing seas of learning, education, and training.

On Saturday, we lost our "grand navigator" but Phil Dodds has left us well equipped to find our own way now.

Thanks for the memories and the navigational aids Phil!

w
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Technorati tags: Phil Dodds, Captain Philip Van Horn Weems, ADL, SCORM, memory, ADL-R, Weems, navigation

del.icio.us tags: Phil Dodds, Captain Philip Van Horn Weems, ADL, SCORM, memory, ADL-R, Weems, navigation

Don't Mean to Bug You, but .......

Jonas Salk, the man who developed the polio vaccine, once said "If all the insects on earth disappeared, within 50 years all life on earth would disappear. If all humans disappeared, within 50 years all species would flourish as never before." There would be some debate as to the precise figures and outcomes here but the point is well taken I think. No reason to despair either, but humble pie should probably be a regular part of our diet, and here's chance to gain some more IQ points from taking this new perspective.

The earth without people

If you're curious about a scenario of the earth without humanity, check out "Earth Without People, an essay by Alan Weisman in the February 6, 2007 issue of Discover magazine. Weisman describes some possible scenarios. His article includes the the chart shown here, which lays this out on a timeline. 

His essay concluded with the following:

"During that same span, every dam on Earth would silt up and spill over. Rivers would again carry nutrients seaward, where most life would be, as it was long before vertebrates crawled onto the shore. Eventually, that would happen again. The world would start over."

And one bit of good news to some is that if all humans were to disappear, so too would some other species that have become dependent upon us, most notably the cockroach!  But for all of you cheered by this thought, remember that it requires that we leave first! 

Recommended Reading:

For more on this perspective, as well as a good read, I'm recommending you consider reading Alan Weisman's book The World Without Us. To help you decide if it's worth your time see Starting Over, the recent review (Sept.2, 2007) by Jennifer Schuessler who describes Weisman's book as

"wherein he imagines what would happen if the earth’s most invasive species—ourselves—were suddenly and completely wiped out."

"When it comes to mass extinctions, one expert tells him, “the only real prediction you can make is that life will go on. And that it will be interesting. Weisman’s gripping fantasy will make most readers hope that at least some of us can stick around long enough to see how it all turns out."

Next up for your reading consideration and taking us back to insects, check out  Buzz: The Intimate Bond Between Humans and Insects. For some "decision support" with this one, read the excerpt and review in Discover called "Bzzzzzzz: Why insects are vital to human survival."

Bee-ware

Let's do another one of those "inverted thinking" flips we covered in my posting "New Perspectives: The Benefits of Looking Up!" Rather than consider our elimination, imagine what would happen if all the insects were to disappear?  According to Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson:

"If all insects were to suddenly vanish overnight, it’s likely humans would be endangered. All the plants that insects pollinate would disappear. All our detritus would pile up to colossal heights. Even the oceans would be affected. Nutrients would pour down off the increasingly denuded land into the sea, triggering massive algal blooms, which would exhaust the water of oxygen and threaten fish. And the impact on terrestrial ecosystems would be enormous."

“If insects were gone, you would break a large part of the terrestrial food chain. A number of birds would starve in no time at all. Those birds and other animals that depend on birds for food would disappear. Small mammals in the soil that depend, in part, on insects would disappear. It would be a catastrophic chain reaction around the world.”

Not to be confused with extinction which is the much more gradual decline, does it sound too far fetched that entire species could suddenly go missing? Well, as you may have read, this is exactly what has been happening in the past two years to the  honeybee. Millions of bees all over the world, representing in some areas over 70% of their population, have have been disappearing. They leave their hives, never to return nor to be found. In the USA, the wild honeybees have all but completely disappeared. This been labeled "Colony Collapse Disorder" (CCD) and remains an unsolved mystery.

BTW, don't be distracted by the erroneous reports that linked the disappearing bees to cell phone radiation!  However the research into this very serious problem of CCD may also be leading us to even greater understanding. For example it has been noted that just as industrial agriculture has created problems with pollution, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, etc., colony collapse disorder may be a result of a number of poor practices, including the fact that they've bred a superbee and most of the bees hauled around the country for pollination purposes are genetically identical, making them more susceptible to a bacterial or viral attack. On the plus side, InfoShop News has a related article "Organic Beekeepers Not Affected By Colony Collapse Disorder", which goes on to say:

“The problem with commercial operations is in pesticides used in hives to fumigate for varroa mites and antibiotics that are fed to the bees to prevent disease,” she said. “Hives are hauled long distances by truck, often several times during the growing season, to provide pollination services to industrial agriculture crops, which further stresses the colonies and exposes them to agricultural pesticides and GMOs (genetically modified organics).”

Even if the biology side of a world without bees is of less interest to you, consider the economic and human perspectives. In just the USA alone, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture has estimated that CCD has the potential to cause a $15 billion direct loss of crop production and $75 billion in indirect losses. CCD has caught the attention of Fortune magazine with three articles in the past few months including this quote from "As bees go missing, a $9.3B crisis lurks";

"We wouldn't starve if the mysterious disappearance of bees, dubbed colony collapse disorder, or CCD, decimated hives worldwide. For one thing, wheat, corn, and other grains don't depend on insect pollination. 

But in a honeybee-less world, almonds, blueberries, melons, cranberries, peaches, pumpkins, onions, squash, cucumbers, and scores of other fruits and vegetables would become as pricey as sumptuous old wine. Honeybees also pollinate alfalfa used to feed livestock, so meat and milk would get dearer as well. Ditto for farmed catfish, which are fed alfalfa too. 

And jars of honey, of course, would become golden heirlooms to pass along to the grandkids. (Used for millennia as a wound dressing, honey contains potent antimicrobial compounds that enable it to last for decades in sealed containers.)"

Bees for Pets?

Perhaps the insect world has its own version of outsourcing and offshoring?  As you may know, honeybee originated in Europe and are not native to North America. This bee has put undue pressure on the native bees, whose populations until recently were in decline. They're still sorting out why the native bees are making a comeback, but interestingly, native bees called Mason bees have been successfully used by some farmers for pollinating crops. As noted in this Wikipedia entry on Mason bees:

"Most mason bees live in holes and can be attracted by drilling short holes in a block of wood. They are excellent spring season pollinators and, since they have no honey to defend, will only sting if squeezed or stepped on. As such, they make excellent garden "pets", since they both pollinate the plants and are safe for children and pets."

Wait!  Don't Buzz Off Course Just Yet!

But enough of insects for now. You may be asking what this has all got to do with YOU? As usual, I'm leading you along a path and toward a target, however unexpected, convoluted, and latent. In the next few posts. I'll provide a few more varied examples which have common powerful and pervasive patterns lurking beneath which will help provide new perspectives and new models for all of us to use to solve today's complex problems with innovative solutions. If, as I hope, you've previously made some great discoveries here at Off Course - On Target, please follow me a bit further, and I promise to do my best to lead you to more great discoveries along the way, and make it all worth your precious time.

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Technorati tags: insects, bees, colony collapse disorder, CCD, perspectives, books, patterns, research, Jonas Salk, Alan Weisman, Earth Without Us

del.icio.us tags: insects, bees, colony collapse disorder, CCD, perspectives, books, patterns, research, Jonas Salk, Alan Weisman, Earth Without Us

New Perspectives: The Third Wave?

In my recent posts on New Perspectives: Looking Up! and Looking Down and Under, I reviewed a series of new initiatives and technologies ranging from several significant efforts to explore and document the great unknown of earth's oceans to the new capabilities of Goggle "Sky" and  the hidden flight simulator in Google Earth. I chose these examples, in part, to provide you with some new perspectives and because I agree with Allan Kay that:

"a new point of view is worth 80 IQ points."

I thought each of these provided some new perspectives and are very much worth your attention in and of themselves.

However, my primary purpose and point was that I think these examples offer evidence of powerful new meta patterns and trends—"meta' in the sense that I believe that they are operating at a very profound and pervasive level and are affecting more than we may realize.

What is fascinating to me about the marine projects, for example, is that they are being designed not only to provide a huge increase in the quantity and quality of marine data, but the measurement tools and technology they will use is being made accessible to everyone and available on a continuous basis. This is a major shift in approach that believe is a characteristic of the times we are living in.

In spite of all the hype that surrounds buzz words such as Web 2.0, what I see here is a much larger and more profound pattern towards openness and bi-directional functionality. To me, these examples represent the realization of what Alvin Toffler and his wife, Heidi. so presciently described as a "pro-sumer" society. Back in the 60's and 70's when Toffler first wrote about this idea in their best sellers of the time Future Shock and Third Wave, he predicted that we were moving from the industrial evolution which he characterized as the "second wave" ( the first wave was agrarian hunter/gatherer) towards a third wave where we would not be categorized either as producers OR consumers, but rather we would be both, simultaneously.

We've seen this pattern emerging with the evolution of Internet, and World Wide Web, and as related tools have become more "read/write" (consume/produce) and more mass contribution-oriented. Mass production and read only (consume) are becoming a thing of the past. 

But most of these tools are characterized by or limited to the technology world. Now we see this same pattern emerging in new and very different spheres—the marine and space examples we've just looked at, and the pattern becomes much clearer, much larger, and much more powerful. 

In the case these oceanic projects, they are creating an infrastructure of interconnected tools and technology that will be widely available to all who wish to use them. Not only will almost any of us have access to oceans of data (sorry, couldn't resist)—a huge gain in itself, these projects will also enable public and other scientists alike to take control of the tools themselves. Imagine YouTube filling up with high def video content uploaded in almost real time from these projects. Imagine controlling the cameras to make your own videos!.   

So what?  Well among other shifts, these patterns promise to cause increasing acceleration of the rate of change (part of Living in a World of Exponential Change) with some equally rapid and radical results. As Professor Oscar Schofield, a biological oceanographer at Rutgers University put it:

"the data gathered already had upended some of what he was taught in graduate school, from the way rivers flow into the ocean to the complexity of surface currents." and went on to say:

“When there’s a hurricane, when all the ships are running for cover, I’m flying my gliders into the hurricane,” using his office computer, Professor Schofield said. “Then I’m sitting at home drinking a beer watching the ocean respond to a hurricane.” 

“What’s great about oceanography is we’re still in the phase of just basic exploration. We’ve discovered things off one of the most populated coasts in the United States that we didn’t know yet. O.O.I. (Open Ocean Initiative) will take us one level beyond that, to where any scientist in the world will be able to explore any ocean.”

Now THAT is powerful change and a wave I plan on riding. More likely this meta-trend will affect all of us more along the lines of the way a rising tide raises all boats in the harbor. It is likely that we are all "rising" already, whether we know it or not.

Well, I hope you're feeling much "smarter" now with all these new perspectives and extra IQ points.  As a sailor, I'm obviously fascinated with the ocean, but I'm also trying to use these larger trends to get a bit "smarter" myself by looking at the world from new vantage points, such as Outer and Inner Space. 

Isn't it fascinating that the more we learn the more we understand how much more we don't know? "Curious for life" is a goal I hope you share too and that this little "drink of water" will motivate you to learn much more about the aquatic worlds all around us. Sea you soon!

w
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Technorati tags: oceans, patterns, trends, future, prosumer, Toffler, change, exponential change

del.icio.us tags: oceans, patterns, trends, future, prosumer, Toffler, change, exponential change