KISS...and Then Tell Me

As I’ll talk about more in my next podcast, our world is changing at unimaginable rates, and these rates are increasing exponentially. One interesting and increasingly problematic aspect of this phenomenon is that many of our units of measure are becoming less useful. They are so small that we have to start dealing with multiples that are cumbersome. Consider something as simple as our monetary units—dollars, Euros, pesos, yen, etc.  When we deal with the gross national product of a country or its deficit, say, can we really fathom how comparatively big or small a trillion dollars or euros is?  And if that’s not bad enough, it’s compounded by the fact that the same unit of measure can mean different things in different countries; a billion in the UK has 12 zeros behind it, whereas a billion in the USA has only nine (10¹² in the UK and 10⁹ in the USA)!

Being unable to make these units and numbers meaningful also interferes with our ability to make smart decisions or engage in meaningful discussions, so all of us need to be concerned about this growing problem.

To me, much of the complexity is needless and self-induced. A good dose of simplification and reduction goes a long way towards resolving the problem. I’ve always liked the notion of KISS (Keep it Simple, Stupid), and so I was intrigued to read in this month’s (January 2007) issue of Spectrum magazine of a proposal to deal with these very problems as they pertain to energy. Spectrum is of the many monthly publications I receive from IEEE (Institute for Electrical and Electronic Engineers) where many of us have worked for years on standards for Learning Technology.

This wonderfully short and simple article “Joules, BTUs, Quads—Let's Call the Whole Thing Off” lays out an equally simple solution to the current problem of too many different and often too small units of measure for energy. The article includes a simple example showing how this problem makes it almost impossible to reasonably compare and choose from different energy sources. The proposal from several energy experts is to standardize on an existing single large unit of measure for all such comparisons: one cubic mile of oil (CMO). 

Illustrations are often wonderful examples of the elegance, clarity, and simplicity. The illlustration included in this article is just that. It clearly compares how many different energy sources (dams, nuclear power plants, coal plants, windmills, or solar panels) it would take to generate one CMO each year for 50 years.  As you can immediately see, using CMO as the only unit of measure makes the comparison clear and simple. Imagine instead what this would look like as a table containing all of the different energy units—from Joules to BTU’s to Quads—and all with enormous numbers in front of them!

Our challenge is look at our own fields of expertise for examples of this problem—too many units of measure and quantitative measures with too many digits—where comparisons are unwieldy and unmanageable. How many different terms or units can you eliminate by doing something similar?  What kinds of comparisons can you make so much clearer and understandable if you do? 

So KISS...and then tell me about it. Send me your comments via this blog or by other means. Share your results and help all of us collectively use the power of KISS to make this complex and exponentially growing world of ours a little better and more understandable. Here’s to all of us having better discussions and making better decisions.

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Comments

[RobiNZ]

Yep, you're going to get the (mostly) SI Metric world to relate to cubic miles?

If Wikipedia can be believed it will be fine in Liberia, Myanmar, Thailand and USA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Metric_system.png

[Bri]

Yes, I think standardization of units is a great idea, but I agree with the miles comment... seems very US-centric, since the vast majority of the world uses metric. Also, since oil is a finite resource, I think using oil as the term of measure is not a good choice...

[Stephen Downes]

This example shows how elusive the concept of simplicity is.

As one commentator has already pointed out, the measure of '1 cubic mile' is needlessly complicated for a a world based on SI.

Moreover, '1 cubic mile' is meaningless as a measure. Nobody knows how much oil '1 cubic mile' represents. It is a unit outside our comprehension. Consider: off the top of your head, how many barrels is it? How many homes does it heat?

Third, the concept of 'oil' is not static. Oil comes in different types, some of which create more energy than others. Is the '1 cubic mile' West Texas Crude? Or what?

Fourth, one wonders how using a measure of volume clarifies a measure of energy. In an energy-conscious world, it may make more sense to educate people about joules than it does to make them imagine cubic miles of oil.

Keep in mind that one joule is the work done to produce power of one watt continuously for one second; or one watt second. And people *do* understand the concept of the kilowatt-hour - it shows up on their electric bill every month.

The main argument for the proposed system (ie., that we use a CMO as a measure) is that it is too difficult to use other measures. Of course, when they are stated as poorly as the authors state them, one cannot help but wonder why.

Consider, for example, "The Three Gorges Dam is rated at its full design capacity of 18 gigawatts." per yer? Let's suppose so - the authors don't say.

Then in the diagram we see that 1 CMO is equivalent to '4 Three gorges dams every year for 50 years'. Huh? How many Three Gorges Dams is that for one year? 200. Why not say one CMO (which is burned in one year) is equivalent to 200 dams (which produce 18 gigawatts per year).

Or, in other words, 36,000 gigawatts per year (gigawatt-years). One year is about 1 year = 8766 hours. That's 315 576 000 gigawatt-hours. That's 315 petawatt-hours, or 0.3 exawatt-hours (I'll leave the conversion to joules to you).

People can handle mega and giga (they do it when they use computers every day). The way things are going, it won't be long before they handle tera and peta. And - nicely - their system for counting units of energy will be the *same* as the one they use to count units of memory. And units of other things.

And what's so complex about 315 petawatt-hours? Nothing.

Looking at this article, I am face with two questions:

1. Why did the authors use oil as a standard?

2. Why did the authors use the mile as a standard?

It seems to me that such a nomenclature makes people think of energy in terms of imperial units and in terms of petroleum products.

And it makes everything else look like a *lot* - compared to the oil. It only takes *one* oil to make up 32,000 or so wind turbines (for 50 years).

How we talk about something says a lot about how we think about something, which is why there are such disputes about standards and nomenclature.

From one point of view, the use of CMO is 'simple'. From another point of view, the use of CMO is politically loaded and culturally specific.

That's why standards are so hard, and especially why discussions of them shouldn't be limited to engineers and should be presented as a "wonderfully short and simple article" in IEEE Spectrum.

[Wayne H Hodgins]

Thanks for the comments and observations Robin, Bri and Stephen. I too winced at the imperial units of miles in this CMO example! Being Canadian and have lived most of my life outside of North America, I'm all too familiar with the issue of the USA being almost the only place on the planet that has not yet seen the light and standardized on the metric system! And thanks Robin for pointing out that there are at least three other countries, Liberia, Myanmar, Thailand who share this condition.

As with much of my thinking, my point in posting this article was to more conceptual and abstract. This example of CMO was just a recent data point that was useful to put more focus on the concept and topic of simplicity, in particular for the purpose of increasing our collective ability to have better discussions, greater common understanding and make better decisions.

As Stephen notes, simplicity is indeed a tricky and elusive subject and concept. I suspect it is yet another example of how the simplest things in life often are the most profound and the most difficult to understand. All the more reason then for us to put more focus on and energy into this topic of simplicity and thanks again for your contributions to doing just that.

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