Off Course-On Target

Wassup with Web 2.0? A VERY BIG Picture is Emerging from LOTS of Little Pieces

I was honored to be asked to give the keynote presentation at the “Emerging Pieces of the Education Puzzle” conference on the Campus Skellefteå located in north east Sweden.  Unfortunately I had previous engagements before and after in other parts of the world and was not able to be there physically, but we did the next best thing with a live video and audio for 90 minutes.  There were several hundred educators, PhD and graduate students in attendance and we had a great discussion about the effects of so called “Web 2.0” and other changes on the future of education and learning.  The slides “Wassup with Web 2.0?  a VERY BIG Picture is Emerging from LOTS of Little Pieces” are available from SlideShare.net and accessible below.

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NOTE!  see the note at the end of this posting about an exciting new feature of SlideShare! which now let's you download all the slides themselves as well as viewing them here.

In the presentation and ensuing conversations we had via live video, I put the emphasis on my observation that Web 2.0 is “a phenomena” and NOT a technology".  It is all about putting the focus on US as humans and our behavior FAR more than it is about the enabling and necessary technology.  Picking up on just a few of them, some main topics I covered in the talk included:

• Design patterns for Web 2.0  (slide #15) I’ve long been a champion of the profound work that Christopher Alexander did when he developed a “Pattern Language” for architecture that provides a set of common themes and relationships that are repeated in virtually every different form and age of architectural design.  In his book “A Pattern Language” Alexander writes:
  "Each pattern describes a problem that occurs over and over again in our environment, and then describes the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way that you can use this solution a million times over, without ever doing it the same way twice."
  Those of you who are familiar with my concepts and models will see how well this aligns with my visions of mass personalization and uniqueness.
  Tim O’Reilly used Alexander’s model to create a list of “design patterns” for Web 2.0 and you can find these in his paper “What is Web 2.0?”
• I put together a list of “Continuing characteristics of the continuum” (slides 16 & 17) referring to my comments on the importance of recognizing Web 2.0 as being a phase or stage of a continuum and the need to see the continuing trends within this phase that will continue into the next.
• Mashups (slide 32) as a much more universal and ubiquitous trend and model that is applicable to almost everything and not just software code as is most typically assumed.  Examples include the use of a mashup model for everything from content to events to project teams.  I included the fun “DIY Web 2.0 Startup” graphic that was featured in Wired magazine last year.  For more of my thoughts on mashups see the previous posting “The Future is a Monstrous and Marvelous Mashup”
• Exponential growth, where I noted how almost all change is and always has been on an exponential growth curve.  More on this in the podcast and transcript “Living in a World of Exponential Change”
• Feedback loops which are one the fundamental components of enabling mass customization and personalization.  Current examples include the “thumbs up/thumbs down” type of feedback seen in things like StumbleUpon and the rating of your music preferences in the likes of Pandora. 
  These feedback loops need to become a universal and ubiquitous presence in literally any and all “consumables” (reading, listening, watching, etc.) and also branch out to include gathering inferred feedback and the “natural feedback” we are continuously providing based on what we do, decisions we make, etc.
• Harnessing the collective intelligence of the groups and communities around any topic, industry, issue.  The notion popularized by the research of James Surowiecki  and his 2004 book which coined the term "Wisdom of the Crowds".  Dan Farber had some good observations about this in his recent post and video “Web 2.0 for the Enterprise: Wisdom of the Employees”  including a video of the panel interview he facilitated at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco.

I’ll leave you to look through the slides for more of what I covered and do let me know if you would like to see more details on any of the characteristics and points I make in the slides.

Finally, two of the most recent and best examples of the characteristics of Web 2.0 and beyond are Joomla! and Zude.  Rather than try to explain Zude check out this interview and demo.

This is NOT an endorsement of either of these applications but rather to provide you with what I believe to be GREAT examples of the tipping point that is developing around my theme of “MC2: Mass Customization x Mass Contribution”.  Have some “serious fun” spending some time to “play” with both of these and I’m convinced you will start to see how these enable and encourage almost anyone from your grandmother to your 4 year old nephew to be able to be both a content producer and consumer and do it all THEIR way.  I am particularly intrigued by the combination of both these types of “applications” with something like Joomla!! providing the functionality for content management however formal or informal, and something like Zude providing the functionality for assembling just the right stuff, just the right way, just for me.  Keep your eye on these types of functionality and I’ll be reporting more as I do so as well.

I ended my keynote to the group in Skellefteå Sweden with a brief overview of my concept of the Snowflake Effect and the coming age of mass personalization and uniqueness.  Based on just what I was able to cover under this banner of Web 2.0 it seems to me that the forecast for the future is filled with everything from snowflakes to snow storms and outright blizzards.  No need to dress warmly though, just starts to similarly prepare to live, learn, work and prosper as the unique snowflake you are and with all the other snowflakes (and a few flakes) surrounding you!

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** SlideShare now let's you download the actual slides!
BTW and as a great example of Web 2.0, SlideShare has just announced a new feature I and most others have been asking and waiting for, which is the ability to not only see the slides but to also download them as either PPT slides or PDF.   Providing direct access to the individual slides themselves is of particular important to me as I put all my content into the Creative Commons and the whole value proposition is for the share and reuse of my content and so that I too can benefit from the changes and improvements that others make to my content.   All my slides will be posted with this feature from now on.

Anybody can download the file- whether a SlideShare account owner or otherwise. Go to the slideview page and look for the ‘Download file’ link at the bottom right corner of the slideshare flash player. Screenshot above.

Competition: Good for Changing the World

In my recent post “Opportunities in our Lap?” I provided some of my thoughts and an update on the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) or $100 Laptop initiative and received a lot of response and notes from many readers and other bloggers. (thanks) So I wanted to send out this quick update with some additional articles that came out in the past week. 

“A laptop to change the world” by Jeremy Allison (Google employee working on Samba) was recently posted on ZDnet News.  Jeremy and I share some very similar interests as he too found the most notable progress of OLPC was their work on the software and OS (Operating System).  In his last paragraph Jeremy did a great job of paraphrasing what I've been outlining with my comments on mass personalization and the Snowflake Effect when he said:

"There are roughly one billion people with access to the Internet in the first world. The OLPC project and machines like it are designed for the other five billion on this planet. Even if it fails, it will have an enormous impact on the computing landscape. If it succeeds, I think it will change the world in ways we currently can't envisage.” 

David Berlind from ZDnet also posted a very relevant article called “Will Negroponte’s One Laptop Per Child be a problem for Microsoft?”  The ZDNet image gallery now has some new pictures and videos of the “near production-level” version of the OLCP laptop.  David also took particular note of the OLPC progress on software and OS.  He noted for example how this is introducing a fascinating potential for lots of competition on the future of both software and operating systems amongst everyone from individuals to giant corporations and governments, and from open source to fully proprietary models. 

One example of this effect has already happened with Microsoft’s recent announcement of a their new $3 Windows with Office bundle for governments of developing countries as they too go after the 5.6 billion people on this planet who have yet to have access to personal computers and the Internet.  You can read more about this and the ties to OLPC in “Microsoft’s Linux Defense: $3 Windows Office bundle”. 

My take?  This is all FANTASTIC news for the future of learning and performance for ALL of us! 

Wouldn't it be great if there was fierce competition to do such things as enabling EVERY one of the 6.6 billion of us on the planet to have ready and easy access to computing power, wireless connectivity and each other? 

Wouldn't it be great if everyone from those working individually on open source projects to those in huge corporations and governments working on large scale proprietary systems were knocking themselves out to develop the next paradigm shift in HCI (Human Computer Interfaces), the next operating systems and applications? 

As per the OLPC example with their "Sugar" interface this is already leading to a complete rethinking of our approaches and will undoubtedly usher in new replacements for these fundamental concepts.  All this gives me even more optimism that the future is a bright one indeed!  Stay tuned here to "Off Course - On Target" and I’ll continue to pay attention to these developments and bring you more in future postings.

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Opportunities in our Laps?

I suspect that many of you are aware of Nicholas Negroponte, the charismatic founder of MIT’s Media Lab and his One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative (or as it is sometimes called, “the $100 laptop”). The stated mission of OLPC is:

“ …to develop a low-cost laptop—the "$100 Laptop"—a technology that could revolutionize how we educate the world's children. Our goal is to provide children around the world with new opportunities to explore, experiment, and express themselves.”

Negroponte originally announced this initiative at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2005, and it has since received a great deal of attention, along with a full range of reactions. But, more importantly, they’ve made great progress since the announcement, and they are on track to begin the distribution of millions of laptops every month starting next year (2008).

Originally staffed by a core of Media Lab veterans, it quickly expanded to include a wide range of exceptionally talented and dedicated people from academia, industry, the arts, business, and the open-source community. For an overview of this project and an update on its progress, please check out the OLPC wiki and information on the OLCP site about the specific components of the OLPC laptop.

The article that sparked this posting, which is one of the best overviews of OLPC that I have read, is in this month’s (April 2007) IEEE Spectrum magazine “The Laptop Crusade” by Tekla S. Perry. As noted in this Spectrum article and its “sidebar” on “Other Roads to Computing for All”, there are several other projects focused on producing low cost, low power computers for the masses throughout the world. It is a fascinating set of stories, and I’d strongly encourage you to read them and be informed of the truly admirable progress that is being made.

Personally, I think the concept of “One Laptop Per Person” rather than “Child” is even more powerful and pragmatic. Negroponte himself noted right from the beginning that “It's an education project, not a laptop project.”  This project is NOT just about technology nor it is just for geeks and technical interests. Rather it is a VERY HUMAN story and one with huge potential to bring great change to our world. There is, for example, an interesting timeline in the OLPC “Progress” section which traces back to 1967 when Seymour Papert introduced Logo, the first programming language for children, and his 1980 publication Mindstorms: Children, Computers and Powerful Ideas.

However, it is important for us to understand that all these promising outcomes of the OLPC initiative are currently “just” potential. I don’t say this to knock the project, but just to remind the rest of us that the very real challenge is how can we convert potential into reality and what role can we play to do so?! This theme and question of actually changing the world is what I want to focus on today.

I’ve been noting for several years now that in 10 years or less we will look back and see that a large part (perhaps even a majority) of innovation will come from the most unlikely and unexpected sources, particularly underdeveloped and underserved markets and regions of the world. With this context in mind, let’s look at “One Laptop Per Child” and other programs to see what opportunities for true innovation they can provide:

• Innovation of software paradigms and interfaces
• Mass learning for masses of teachers
• Bottom up or grass roots innovation and development

SUGAR: Software that is SO Sweet!

First is the development of whole new metaphors for human computer interaction and specifically the software interface. The desktop metaphor is not only very dated (going back hundreds of years), it is also limiting our abilities to think and work effectively. We’ve noted this effect and limitation here in previous postings and podcasts, such as “Perfecting the Irrelevant” and "Unlearning".

Furthermore let’s remind ourselves of two other fundamental problems with the “desktop” metaphor:

• Many people in the world have never had a desk and millions don’t even know what one is
• Even those who do have desks are more often wanting and needing to be AWAY from them! Think about your own situation and how many hours per week you spend (or want to spend) working at a desk versus being away from it; traveling, walking, socializing, and spending time outside.

So if the majority of people want to be independent of desks, then let’s create ways of interacting with technology and our world that are equally divorced and distanced from the desktop.
The OLPC initiative is developing a whole new approach, one that is worth following and building upon. The OLPC interface called “Sugar” has no software applications; rather it is focused on what they refer to as “activities” and the notions of Presence, Expression and Journaling.

You can read more on the OLPC site and you can try out this demonstration  of the interface, or click on either of the images on the OLPC “Interface” page which are screen shots of the new Sugar interface like the ones shown here. The IEEE Spectrum article also includes an excellent overview of the innovative work being done on the interface as well as equally impressive creativity with hardware, low power consumption and overall laptop design.

As noted on the OLPC site:

“Activities are distinct from applications in their foci—collaboration and expression—and their implementation—journaling and iteration.”  These are not only cognitively powerful laptops with very low electrical power demands, but they are also seriously focused on the social and play aspects of life and learning.

Each OLPC laptop has a built-in innovative and powerful Wi-Fi capability and game buttons. These features, combined with basic human nature (especially in children) will lead to a great deal of interaction among those using these laptops, and their ability to create mesh networks. You can acccess a fun and simple interactive demo of the power of mesh networks from their “hardware” page. I think you will immediately start to see the power and possibilities this produces. It sounds like some “serious fun” to me!

Mass Learning for massive numbers of teachers

All of this, of course, raises the question about teachers and their roles and reactions. Will teachers see this as an advantage or a threat? How will teachers figure out how to use these new tools and how to integrate them into their teaching methods, curriculum, and classrooms? These are not new questions. What is new is that this is all going to happen extremely quickly and without much warning or planning.
Imagine “classrooms” in many of these countries that are in extremely remote locations, without power, desks or most other basics, and yet literally the next day, each student walks in with one of these laptops in hand. The children, with the combination of their great gifts of constant curiosity and so little to “unlearn”, will likely take to these laptops with great ease and speed. But what will be the reaction of teachers and other adults in the community?

There is no current funding or plans for any associated teacher training programs to go with the OLPC project. Is this foolish or brilliant? Should such teacher training and “train the trainer” programs be formally developed or will it be better to leave this to the teachers and adults themselves? Will teachers learn (and teach) best by doing so with their students and adopting a “guide on the side” type approach?

Grass Roots Innovation

Going back to my prediction that innovation will increasingly come from the most unlikely, underdeveloped, and underserved sources, there is also this question of how to strike the balance between top down and bottom up innovation and implementation. The OLPC initiative is trying to strike such a balance with the “top down” development of the project itself and the technology. However, they are equally dependent upon bottom up or grass roots development of what will become the deciding factor for how well OLPC is realized. This includes the use of an “open source” type of approach to the continued development of the hardware and the software platforms, but so too will be the development of teachers and other members of the communities and support structure necessary to make this all work.

I really hope that by bringing these initiatives to your attention and by provoking some of these questions, all of us will choose to join forces with these initiatives, and contribution individually and in groups to our mutual and overall success. I’ve peppered the text above with lots of questions, but to spice up your thinking even more, consider some of these additional key questions and PLEASE post more of your own.

• What will happen when children start graduating from schools with regular access to such technology into societies and economies that are not ready to or have not changed accordingly?
• Will they choose to leave and go to other places that have changed?
• Will they stay and cause the change to occur?
• Or will these types of initiatives cause economies and societies to change along with them?
• Is this any different than the recent and current situation in our own communities that have had access to this type of technology for years and how we are seeing similar challenges with the new graduates entering the work force and the dynamics between various generations of users?
• Will the necessary support structure be developed to surround this massive influx of laptops and technology?
• Will these laptops go to those who need them or will they still only get into the hands of those who have money, however little?

There is no question that technology will continue to play a pivotal role in changing our world, for better and for worse. However, we get to decide how quickly and how well these changes will progress. It is our choice, both individually and collectively, as to whether initiatives such as OLPC and the concept of “One Laptop Per Person” will bring about any significant change, have a negative impact, or truly change the world for the better. Believing that we truly are given this choice, I choose the latter. I hope that most of you will choose the same, turning our words into actions and deeds. Here’s to better learning, loving, and living.

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High Resolution Imagery = High Definition Learning?

I am a HUGE fan of public radio, and I listen to it whenever I can. In the US, public radio comes in the form of National Public Radio (NPR) and most countries have a similar form, as well as access to Public Radio International (PRI). Typically these stations are broadcast just about everywhere, so as you’re driving, you can usually pick them up better than most other stations. I find their content to be one of the last sources of balanced and informative broadcasting.

The other day when I was driving in the US, I caught a news story on NPR about a fascinating new joint venture between Google and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) called “Crisis in Darfur”. NPR is very good about posting their content, so you can read more about it and also listen to the original broadcast called “Google Sets Out to Map the Crisis in Darfur”.

If you are a regular reader here at Off Course – On Target, you will recall some previous posts, such as “Mashed up Maps for the Masses” and “Snowflakes Galore at TechFest 2007”, where we looked at ways that maps are benefiting from new technology and techniques that make them highly customized and extremely rich with information. This new initiative between Google and USHMM adds another dimension and is a provocative application of mapping and high-resolution photographic imagery.

Reuters covered this story at “Google to Map Atrocities in Darfur”. As Holocaust Museum director Sara Bloomfield put it:

"The 'Crisis in Darfur' is the first of the museum's 'Genocide Prevention Mapping Initiative' that is aimed at providing information on potential genocides early on in the hope that governments and others can act quickly to prevent them.”

I am interested in this not only for this specific situation but also as a chance to see if this form of “high definition learning” will be able to make more of a difference in moving people to action than previous efforts. Unfortunately, history has shown that simply making people aware of such atrocities has had almost no effect on stopping such acts.

This project will assemble photographs, high resolution satellite imagery, data, and eye witness testimony, and use Google Earth technology to make this accessible to over 200 million people around the world who have downloaded the Google Earth software*. They will be able to zoom in on high-resolution imagery to see the destroyed villages and other evidence of the destruction that, to date, the Sudanese government has denied exists.

* If you have not tried Google Earth or Microsoft’s Live Search (an implementation of their Virtual Earth technology) PLEASE do yourself and others around you a favor by trying it NOW! Google Earth does require a download, but this is truly one of those things you have to see and experience in order to believe and understand. Almost everyone I know who has done so has been completely amazed by its capabilities. And if it has been a while since you used it, you should try it as well, since new capabilities and more imagery and resolution is being added daily.

To check out the Darfur imagery, you just need to “fly” and “zoom” your way over to this region (a good lesson in itself for the many who never knew Darfur existed or where it was on the map). You’ll see how the project has put a colored border around the region to catch your attention. Zooming in from there and exploring the area is what this project is all about, so give it a try.

After these initial experiences, consider the profound impact that this readily available technology will have. We can expect to see a multiplier effect and an exponential increase in the volume of photographic data being produced by literally billions of lenses being aimed 24x7 at almost every place on earth.

Keep in mind that this mapping technology not only includes the photographic images steadily streaming out of orbiting satellites, but also the billions of photographs that individuals like you and me are taking. All of us can contribute images from our digital cameras via web galleries from the likes of Flickr, Google’s Picasa, Kodak EasyShare, SmugMug and hundreds of others. Putting this in the context of maps and using location as an underlying interface and structure is proving to be a VERY powerful way of connecting information and intellect— truly creating new knowledge and learning.

Of course, any powerful capability can be used for both good and bad purposes. However the point for us to remember is that the technology is “stupid” and can only be put to the uses and purposes that WE design and develop. So once again, we are both the problem and the solution. I am both hoping and asking that we make the right choice and take the action to ensure that this power is utilized and leveraged for very positive forward progress and benefits.

It remains to be seen if the “Crisis in Darfur” project and this new combination of content and technology will produce new levels of deep and behavior changing learning. But in my opinion, it is a great form of leadership by example. Let’s learn from this example and begin to design and develop other ways of putting this technology to use for increased effectiveness of learning and performance.

What other applications and projects can YOU think of for using this technology?

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Coming Soon to a Desktop Near You: Massive Amounts of 3D for the Masses

As the Snowflake Effect of mass personalization continues unabated, DESIGN is playing an increasingly important and common role in our lives. We are ALL becoming designers! Today I’d like to take a quick look at some of the most significant areas where mass personalization of design is now becoming a reality:

• The ability to create and manipulate full three and four dimensional models
• The “bookend” capabilities of 3D scanning to help create these models
• The ability to quickly create physical models with such things as 3D printing, rapid prototyping, or stereo lithography

Although none of these capabilities are particularly new, what IS new is how they are now following the familiar trend lines of rapidly decreasing costs, increasing functionality, and ease of use. Several articles or postings in the past few days have brought this point home:

• Chris Anderson’s* fun new site “GeekDad” covers 3D printing and 3D scanning in his recent post “Is home 3D scanning and printing within reach?”.
• Peter Wayner’s “Beaming Up 3-D Objects on a Budget” in the New York Times, April 5, 2007.

3D Scanning

On the input side, 3D scanners make it easy to convert from physical objects to digital 3D models. In his New York Times article, Peter Wayner notes how you can now purchase a desktop laser scanner, such as the NextEngine 3D Scanner for only US$2495! This is great example of declining size and price. In fact, NextEngine CEO Mark Knighton says, “Our goal is to democratize 3D scanning.”

To quickly see what this scanning process applied to two figures of Star Wars characters Hans Solo and Jabba the Hut:

1. Go to https://www.nextengine.com/indexSecure.htm.

2. Click on the “Gallery” tab in the top navigation bar.

3. Choose “Han and Jabba” from the gallery. 

You can also view a movie of the post processing of the scans into Autodesk 3D Studio Max. Or you may want to read this more detailed review of NextEngine from Prototype magazine that has a good set of images and description of the whole process.

To scan very large objects, such as cars, you can use hand-held devices that work more like a camera but record the object’s surface in 3D rather than a flat 2D picture. Check out this informative video from Zcorp, which demonstrates how their handheld 3D scanner works.

3D Printing

On the output side, 3D printing creates physical objects from 3D digital models. Just as with the 3D scanners, the price and size of 3D printers are dropping dramatically. Desktop Factory is making a low cost 3D printer that sells for $5000 to $7000.

Take a few minutes to check out the video from Zcorp that vividly shows a 3D printer in operation.
Believe it or not, printers such as this one from Zcorp actually use the same kind of dot-matrix process as 2D paper printers, except that they just use plastic and other materials instead of ink and they build up the full object in multiple (hundreds to thousands) passes. This process is currently limited to using materials (3D ink) such as wax, plastic, and ceramics.

However, it is also possible to use 3D printing to create molds into which molten metal or other materials can be poured or injected. This enables a much greater range of materials to be used in creating 3D models. Think about this as the equivalent of adding “color” to 2D printing. So now you can have 3D printed models made from metals such as gold, silver, cast iron, and brass.

3D as a Service

For larger objects and to provide more choices of materials, Minico Industries and other companies are offering to do this 3D printing as a service. Great Eastern, for example has a full set of those machines from Zcorp that I described above. You just send them the 3D digital model files and they send you the real thing in the mail overnight or within a few days.
Think of it as the modern version of sending your film away to be processed and having the prints returned to you in the mail. As with photo processing, eventually most of these 3D printing shops will be displaced by the ability to just do it yourself yet they will retain some services for high-end and more complex jobs.

High Definition Communications?

Speaking of complex objects and assemblies, note that these 3D printing capabilities are NOT limited to creating single part objects—even more amazing! For example, in the 3D printer video mentioned above, they can make complete models of very complex assemblies, including things like fully functional ball bearings, engines, and buildings. All of this can be done in full color and can include regular 2D printing on the 3D objects for things like labels, logos, etc.

As is noted by several of these manufacturers, 3D printing is really all about extending our abilities to communicate. In this context, if picture is worth a thousand words, I wonder how much a full and real 3D model is worth?

Room for Improvements

Today, 3D scanners and 3D printers are still only cost effective for businesses and larger budgets, and some of the processes are still too difficult for truly mass use. There are also limitations in the range of materials that can be created. While it is currently possible to create some metal materials (e.g. bronze), steel and cast iron remain a future capability for 3D printing. Now THIS is a great example of one of my favorite quotes from William Gibson:

“The future is already here, it is just not very evenly distributed”

Perhaps even more vexing are the challenges in working with 3D design at all. First, when it comes to human computer interfaces, we are still living in a very “flat” world. We are still stuck with EXTREMELY two-dimensional ways of interacting with digital models using things like mice, keyboards and flat screens. Second, we still need to see a major increase in such things as haptic feedback or force feedback where we can literally FEEL the virtual or digital models in our hands. Imagine having some digital clay or Lego blocks that you could pick up, feel, assemble and shape.

3D printing and scanning help dramatically with bridging the physical and digital worlds, but the interface challenges remain largely unresolved. However progress IS being made. Recent examples include some mice that enable you to “feel” the edge of a shape or a highlighted word by transferring motion to your hand as the cursor runs over these things on the screen, and some of the new game controllers vibrate or otherwise simulate “real” effects. The new Nintendo Wii console with its Wii Remote controller is particularly interesting for this feature and in one example, it enables you to “really feel” the virtual tennis ball when you hit it with your virtual racket while swinging the real “Wiimote” in your hand.

Imagine If…

Whether you are one of the “imaginatively challenged” who is still asking “So What?” or if you are one of those whose cognitive sparks are now flying, consider some of the following scenarios:

• “3D Faxing”, which enables you to “send” a physical part to a distant location. It is not quite the equivalent of teleportation, such as in the well-known Star Trek line from Captain James Kirk, “Beam me up Scotty”, but it is here now and it’s increasingly affordable, so I’ll take it!
• Doctors and medical professionals creating practice models or real components for implants and prosthesis
• Museums building replicas that you can pick up and use, avoiding damage to real artifacts
• Jewelers being able to sit you down and design the perfect ring, bracelet or watch and then “print” it for you, all at the same visit.
• Creating 3D portraits of yourself, your family or your pets.

But my favorite scenario of late is an image from one of my favorite features in Wired magazine. Their back page is reserved for “FOUND: Artifacts from the Future”. Just imagine that you could go online to find “just the right thing” for you or someone else, and not only order it online, but then have it “manufactured” right on your desktop, right before your eyes, right now!

Or imagine that your local hardware store could be reduced down to a small vending machine or service window capable of producing just the right screw, nut, bolt, hinge or other parts for you on demand in minutes. Sure… this kind of production would be more challenging for objects that are complex assemblies, like a vacuum cleaner or a camera, and so these might require that you pick them up just down the street from where you live.

BUT, note how this takes us right back to where I started, which is the increasing role each of us will play as a “designer” as we utilize these kinds of technologies and services to build unique products for each of us as unique individuals in unique situations. THIS is what the Snowflake Effect is all about.

Think about it and stay tuned for MUCH more on these topics here at Off Course – On Target.

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* Yes this is “that” Chris Anderson whom I’ve also talked about extensively with his fantastic observation of the “Long Tail” effect. As Chris notes in his article, “this is the arrival of the ‘Long Tail of Things’ that I talk about in the last chapter of my book.”
Highly recommended reading:
·     The original Long Tail article in Wired magazine 12:10
·     The Long Tail book
·     The Long Tail blog.

Mechanical Snowflakes in Salzburg

If it's Tuesday… this must be Salzburg?!

I was recently asked to make a detour to Salzburg to do the keynote for Autodesk “TechCamp”, the annual meeting of all the partners in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) who are serving the manufacturing and mechanical CAD division.

Jordi Portella, Autodesk's Director of EMEA Manufacturing Solutions and his team put on an excellent almost week long event that was attended by over 550 mechanical and manufacturing partners and specialists.

While this is something that I was  delighted to do, unfortunately I had to sandwich this between meetings in San Francisco on Friday and Orlando on Wednesday, so I was only in Salzburg for about 18 hours, but it was a great reminder of the phrase “short but sweet”.  I landed in Munich and took the train to Salzburg. It was one of those magical rides on a gorgeous spring day through the green hills of Austria and Germany, complete with church steeples marking the small villages and towns, and with freshly snow-covered mountains in the background.

I titled my keynote address “The Snowflake Effect: Unique is What We Seek”. I used this opportunity to highlight the trends, directions, and patterns that I feel are leading inevitably to a universal focus on the uniqueness of not only each of us as individuals, but even more so, the uniqueness of every moment, situation, and project.

Given this audience, I put this in the context of:

• Getting to “just right”, as in finding just the right people, content, context, mediums, etc.
• How learning is becoming an imperative to most organizations
• The increasingly new and expanded roles that design is playing for all of us as “prosumers” (simultaneously being producers and consumers)
• The converging patterns of economies of abundance, the right-brained economy, and the Long Tail effect

You can see more details of each of these in the slides I used as shown here:

| View | Upload your own

As I see it, the future of design will be predominated by the following characteristics:

• Project based
• Multi-discipline
• Collaborative
• Holistic and heuristic
• Right-brain dominated
• Design for the economy of abundance

And we will see the “redefining” of design to include such things as:

• Functional design
• Emotional design
• Design of everyday things in a world of abundance
• “Do good” design with such things as green design and sustainable design
• Design of and for the “virtual world”, moving beyond the design of “physical things”

My closing thoughts were that we need to be:

• Thinking more UNIVERSAL, rather than NATIONAL when it comes to the skills, knowledge, and capabilities of the future.
• Developing execution strategies that adapt and adopt these to leverage local, national, and cultural contexts.
• Shifting towards RIGHT BRAIN dominance in our jobs and skills. Our left brain still very necessary, just not sufficient.
• Ever wary that we are very busy “perfecting the irrelevant”.

I’ve previously covered some of these topics here on Off Course – On Target and will be addressing much more to do with the role of design, skills for the future, and some of these profound and powerful trends that are affecting the future for all of us. Stay tuned for more, send in your comments and suggestions and look forward to seeing you here more often.

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Mashed Up Maps for the Masses

Recent developments in mapping are providing good examples of the growing utility and ubiquity of mashups that we’ve discussed here in my prior postings  “The Future is a Monstrous and Marvelous Mashup” and “Mashed Up Snowflakes”. These new developments are putting the ability to create mashups into the hands of all of us.

What’s noteworthy about these new tools is that they enable ANY one to create a mashup. By eliminating the need for programming or other advanced skills, these tools make it possible for anyone to quickly and easily create their very own mashup maps. 

• Elinor Mills, in her CNET News article “Google makes mashups easy, even for me”, has a review of Google’s new “My Maps” feature.*
• Wired has two related articles “GeekDad/GoogleMaps mashup” and “UnGoogle Geekdad Map of Bay Area Attractions” that describe experiences with Google Maps and the new features in Wayfaring.*

With these tools, it is now a simple matter of dragging and dropping, cutting and pasting, and selecting from menus to create your own maps, customize the icons, add photos or video at any locations, and annotate the map with boundaries for highlighted areas.

If you want to do some hands on experiential learning, check out “How-To: Google MyMaps mashups”  and Google’s “How to Create your Maps”. These are great examples of what I’ve long referred to as MC2 (MC squared)—when the effects of mass customization are multiplied by mass contribution.

Watch Elinor’s short video and slides embedded in her CNET article above to see how simple it is to use: drop-down menu choices, dragging and dropping of icons, boundaries, video and photos that let you create your own mashup map. You also get the choice of sharing this with others, either publicly or privately.

“So what?” you might ask. “Where is this taking us?”  Well, right now, Google has NOT provided the obvious next step, which is the means to edit or modify the maps, but this capability is sure to follow soon. Then the MC2 factor can really take hold.

Next, add the “4th dimension” of time to these maps, as suggested by Scott Nagle in "How-To: Google MyMaps mashups”. And then add some automation to the metadata and add related information to any location on these maps as covered in my previous posting “Snowflakes Galore at TechFest 2007 Part 1” and I think you too can see just how exciting and powerful the possibilities become.

Consider the fun and the inspiration you could get from building a DIY (Do It Yourself) drone or (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) with a digital camera in it!  Why?  Imagine if you had the ability to access massive amounts of location-based content from these mapping sites mentioned above, as well as all the geospatial data from satellites with even greater amounts of content and with higher definition and coverage
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Chris Anderson nicely summarizes this capability in the another GeekDad article “Why UAVs?  ‘Geocrawling'!” 

“The hot business trend of the moment is all about geography: bridging the web and the real world, from map mash ups to hyper local news and Twitter.” 

And then he goes on to help strike the brain sparks I’m trying to fan here when he writes:

“But what if you could deploy airborne cameras as easily as a software spider? What if those cameras were carried on platforms so light and cheap that it didn't matter if they occasionally got stuck in a tree or fluttered to the ground?  What if you could deploy them by the thousands to quietly scan cities block by block at an altitude of a few hundred feet, below planes but above buildings, no louder than a bird and no more dangerous?  What if, in short, cheap UAVs became 'spiders for the real world' in the way software is for the Web?"

Think about this idea of "spiders for the real world" for more than a minute, and you too will be filled with equal parts of fascination and fear (a bit like seeing real spiders for some?!). This combination of emotions is one that I find to be common when presented with truly profound and powerful capabilities.

I strongly encourage you to do some “serious playing” with these new capabilities and tools. Try them out on your own or...even better...with children and others. I think you too will be inspired, excited, and concerned, all at the same time.

As you begin to imagine some of the possibilities and as it sparks ideas of how YOU can put this to use, professionally and personally, be sure to let us know what you find. Tell us what other applications you can think of, and what concerns you may have for the inevitable continuation and exponential growth of these kinds of examples, as well as the power of mass personalization, mass customization, and mass contribution.

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* BTW, for all you parents and kids out there (geeks or not), be sure to check out the relatively new “GeekDad” blog from Wired for some really fun projects— things to do with your kids, and some “serious fun” just being a kid no matter what chronological age you might be. How about building a Baby spoon plane?

Fido for Finding or just for Fools?

Many of you enjoyed the fun posting I made a few weeks ago called “Piracy Going to the Dogs?”. But many of you also thought my comments about Lucky and Flo (the two black Labrador dogs who have been trained to find illegal CDs and DVDs) was my version of an early April Fool’s Day* joke. Far from it!  I was quite serious and so too are the dogs and the people deploying them.

Last week, they chalked up another big success, which you can check out in Monday’s article from Reuters “DVD-busting Dogs Do It Again”. Once again the dogs were able to find things the human experts could not. In this case, they discovered over 150,000 illegal DVDs that were hidden in a secret room the investigators had missed. Apparently the pirates think the dogs are way too good as well and have "put out a hit” on the dogs to be killed and so Lucky and Flo now have their own security force!

While Lucky and Flo were not quite what I had in mind in my recent posting “The Search for Better Finding”, they none the less provide a great example of the end results (finding) winning out over the time we spend searching. As you can see, I didn't call this site "Off Course - On Target" for nothing!

But whether it is dogs or people or technology, here’s to continued progress in our quest to eliminate piracy and dramatically improve our abilities to actually find what we’re looking for.

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* For those of you unfamiliar with the fun tradition of April Fool’s Day, sometimes called “All Fools Day” (or in France they call it "Poisson d'Avril" or "April Fish"),  here is a quick history and explanation. Believing as I do that laughter is one of the best medicines, you may want to check out:

• “The Top 100 April Fool’s Day Hoaxes of All Time”
• Elliott Masie’s most recent Learning Trends posting #439 - Updates on Learning, Business & Technology. This is his version of an April Fool’s Day joke for those interested in learning, education, and training. And if you haven't done it already,  I HIGHLY recommend that you subscribe to Elliott’s Trends Email.

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Get out your Snow Shoes—Severe Snowstorms Hitting TV

In the context of television, I remember when the word “snow” meant that you had very poor reception. Under those conditions, the image on the screen looked like a snowstorm. Now, however, there is a whole new type of “snowstorm” hitting TV and this one is causing a MUCH more profound effect. In the past few weeks, I have seen a veritable storm of news showing how the “Snowflake Effect” (mass personalization) is deeply affecting TV.

Today I’m pointing out some examples to help bring the underlying pattern of the Snowflake Effect into focus, and so we can all understand and benefit from this in our current work and planning. In my role as the so-called “Strategic Futurist”, I strive to look much further into the future than is typical. Taking the long view helps all of us make smarter decisions NOW! This approach is more than just fanciful gazing into the future, and it is not purely strategic. Rather it is a very pragmatic and smart approach for providing good “decision support” for our everyday actions, choices, and guidance. By seizing the underlying principles and patterns, we can make significant advances toward mass personalization and a world optimized for each of us as unique individuals experiencing a stream of unique moments and opportunities.

So with this purpose in mind, here are some new directions in TV content—some concrete evidence of extremely telling and important trends that will affect our overall collections of content and our abilities to get content “just right” for each of us as “snowflakes” and for each “snowflake” moment.

Content Convergence

My first example illustrates the convergence of TV and video from multiple content sources. In this case, the combination of services and technology enables the mass personalization of TV viewing with personal or digital video recorders (PVR or DVR) along with the videos available from online outlets such as Amazon.

Last month Amazon and TiVo rolled out their new integrated offering called “Unbox”, which lets you combine the TV content you receive via your cable or satellite sources with access to buy or rent downloadable TV shows and movies available from Amazon. You can get more details from some recent reviews such as:

• “Amazon’s Unbox Marriage to TiVo”  by David Berlin on ZDNet

• “A Hands-On Look at Amazon Unbox on TiVo” by Matthew Moskovciak on Crave.

As these reviewers note, this first offering exhibits many of the shortcomings that most innovations suffer from, such as some awkward interface problems and difficulties displaying wide-screen HD content, but they will surely be addressed as they mature. The Unbox also provides a significant advantage over say, the recent Apple TV or the use of Microsoft Media Centers, because you don’t need a PC running in the background to make this all work. So this solution is a significant step towards making mass personalization of TV content much simpler and more likely to be adopted by the masses. It’s a great example of TV’s transition from a medium to content, something I discussed previously here at Off Course – On Target with “The Old Medium has become the New Content” Part 1 and Part 2 .

TiVo Home Movie Sharing

TiVo also recently rolled out another and perhaps even more significant capability called “TiVo Home Movie Sharing”. By providing you with a “private channel, this service lets you quickly and easily share your own video content (home movies) with other TiVo users. To provide this new service, TiVo joined forces with One True Media, an online service that helps people create video montages or home movies and provides a fast way of uploading your own content. Thomas Hawk’s Digital Connection has a more detailed review entitled  “TiVo Home Movie Sharing”.

Obviously this model is limited to those who are TiVo users, but look beyond this and imagine what will happen as this capability becomes more ubiquitous and universally available!  And of course, there would be no need to restrict this to “home movies” since it would work equally as well to share video content of any kind and would have value for businesses, education, and most organizations.

This example may help you understand some of my previous comments about the exponential explosion of “channels” for content (such as music and video). From the hundreds of channels currently available via cable and satellite to literally billions of personal channels, there would be at least as many, if not multiple, channels as people since each individual would want to have many different channels to match many different moods, situations and circumstances—watching alone versus with your family, daytime versus nighttime, news and documentaries versus entertainment, etc.

Google Ads TV (pun intended)

Google has also announced several new initiatives that provide further proof of this trend towards mass personalization of TV and video content. For example, in a continuation of their basic ad-based business model, Google recently entered the television advertising business by striking a deal with the large U.S. satellite TV operator EchoStar. Reuters covered the story in the PC Magazine article “Google Ads Move Onto Direct TV”. I am NOT pointing this out because of the advertising or business model issues, but because this is all being driven by the desire to get more direct connections with viewers and to provide the critical feedback loop component of the Snowflake Effect.

As the PC Magazine article notes, “Viewer feedback is the Holy Grail”. Granted, this is also being driven of course by advertising revenue and the pursuit of personalization of advertising, which can certainly have its dark side. However there is also the significant upside of developing these capabilities for improved “targeting” of information and there is no need for this to be restricted to advertising content or purposes. When it works to our own advantage and benefit, well “targeted” information is simply another example of getting it “just right” as in just the right information to just the right person(s) at just the right time, etc. And as noted in my previous post “JOOST = Juiced TV”, such targeted advertising has the ability to dramatically reduce the volume of advertising we experience by as much as 90%!

Google Engineering the Snowflake Effect

Donna Bogatin on ZDNet recently posted an even more direct example of the Snowflake Effect in her article “Google Television engineering targets mass TV personalization”. She does a nice job of summarizing some of the many benefits of “mass personalization” and notes how...

“The characteristics of mass media contrast sharply with the World Wide Web. Mass media channels typically provide limited content to many people; the Web provides vast amounts of information, most of interest to few. Mass media channels typically beget passive, largely anonymous consumption, while the Web provides many interactive opportunities like chatting, emailing and trading.”

Google’s stated goal is “to combine the best of both worlds: integrating the relaxing and effortless experience of mass media content with the interactive and personalized potential of the Web, providing mass personalization.”

Apple Aiming for TV Breakthrough

Not to be outdone by others and adding even more proof of how large and powerful the Snowflake Effect is, Apple has also made some significant announcements recently (see "Apple Aiming for TV Breakthrough"). Most relevant is their launch of Apple TV, a combination of a hardware device and some services that enable content, especially TV and video content, to be streamed from your PC or Mac to your television screen. More details are available on Wikipedia and in the CNN review “Apple TV best for ITunes addicts”

Of course, this is not a new capability, since many other manufacturers and service providers have been offering this for several years. But Apple hopes to be able to do for TV and video content what it did for music and audio content with the iPod. In fact, Apple TV requires the use of iTunes (running on a PC or Mac) to control the access to video and TV content. Personally I think this is also one of the more vexing limitations of the Apple model including the fact that a computer running iTunes is also required to make the system work. I was also surprised to find that there is currently no way to buy iTunes Store content directly from the Apple TV. You have to go to your PC or Mac to do this. This is why the Amazon/TiVo Unbox example is a potentially better model. But it would be folly to dismiss the “Apple factor” with the “emotional design”, mass appeal, and marketing that Apple is SO good at delivering.

Get out your Snow Shoes! (hey, I’m Canadian what did you expect?)

Some see all this recent activity around television as the “liberation of the living room”, which I agree is happening. However, I think this is missing the much larger trends—the transition of TV from an old medium to the new content, and the progression of mass personalization or the Snowflake Effect.

Consider for example that we are also seeing a serious surge in the migration of video content to many other devices and locations—on digital display screens on cell phones, PDA’s, and inside planes, trains and automobiles. The MUCH larger trend we need to notice is the ability to have any content, anywhere, anytime. And while “any” is the focus, our locus needs to be on how to well we can take on this transformation from “any” to “every” and down to just “one” (the right person/place/time/context etc.)

Now THAT is a snowstorm I want to be a part of!  I’m looking forward to hearing about other examples from you, as well as your observations and reflections after you’ve experienced some of these yourself. Put on your snowshoes and let’s start walking this talk.

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